-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
209
FXUS64 KLCH 060501
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1201 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Earlier this evening the wind adv and flood/flash flood watch was
allowed to expire. Much of the shower activity is light and
offshore with the threat for heavy rain over.

As we move into the late evening and overnight hours, there could
be some patchy fog. Best chance for any patchy fog would be inland
areas, most likely, southeast Texas where there is some clearing
evident. Dense fog is not expected, but VSBYs down to one mile
could occur in localized areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The threat of additional flooding, while not completely over, is
beginning to trend downward. KLCH/KPOE radars show convection to
the west and southwest of the area weakening while a few showers
or storms are forming along a leftover boundary stretched across
the area. All of this activity is expected to gradually dissipate
around sunset as daytime instability wanes.

Meanwhile, a short-lived thinning and scattering of lower cloud
layers has allowed for some higher winds between 1000-2000 ft to
mix down to the surface. This produced a period of very gusty
winds this afternoon, with gusts peaking between 40 and 45 MPH at
KBPT and KLCH. A short-fused Wind Advisory has been issued to
account to these stronger winds through 7 PM this evening. The
Advisory may be cancelled sooner should winds subside earlier.

Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue this afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the lower 80s across
much of the area, right near seasonal maximums for this time of
year.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and storms should dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Generally quiet, albeit warm and muggy,
conditions are expected overnight. As winds lighten, low clouds
and patchy fog could develop overnight into Monday morning. Dense
fog is not expected, with visibilities falling to between 1-2
miles in a few spots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are again expected to
develop across the area on Monday, but this will mostly be forced
by daytime heating and boundary interactions, with less support
aloft as shortwave energy will be north and northeast of the area.
While PWATs should remain healthy (~1.6 to 1.8 inches), the risk
for flooding will stay mainly localized, and will likely be
concentrated across portions of central LA. Thus the Flood Watch
will be allowed to expire this evening.

Conditions will trend drier on Tuesday, beginning a much needed
reprieve from the wet pattern for at least a few days. Otherwise,
warm and humid conditions are expected to continue with
temperatures gradually trending upward. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight, increasing to lower 70s
areawide by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, daytime highs will climb
into the middle to upper 80s the next couple of days as daytime
insolation improved with decreasing cloud cover.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Wednesday into Thursday a cold front will be sweeping south across
the plains toward the gulf coast. Ahead of this boundary a warm and
moist south flow will be found locally. Temperatures are expected to
run several degrees above climo norms which are in the mid 80s for
highs and in the low to mid 60s for lows. Forecast values are in the
mid 80s to low 90s for highs and in the mid 70s for lows during both
days which is more similar to June.

The weak ridging in place for Wed and early Thu will slip southeast
as a cold front pushes in for Friday. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms may occur along and ahead of the boundary with a cooler
and drier airmass moving in for the weekend into early next week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR all sites late this evening, though some decreased VSBYS are
noted on area observations along with low clouds lifting north
across eastern TX. Have included a stretch of MVFR all sites,
mainly VSBY driven for the Acadiana terminals and lower CIGS
elsewhere. The VSBYS will improve quickly after sunrise, but the
CIGS will stick around a bit longer, through most of the morning
at least. Rain chances are generally low except for KAEX, where
CAMs are showing some scattered afternoon convection. Generally
preserved the inherited PROB group from the previous forecast.
Light winds overnight will increase from the SE and become gusty
during the afternoon, settling down around sunset. MVFR CIGS
progged to return MON evening.

13
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet
will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Brief periods of
marginal exercise caution conditions will be possible near the
upper TX and SW LA coast from late afternoon through early
morning. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon into this evening with rain chances
diminishing overnight and remaining limited thereafter through the
week. An offshore flow is expected to develop with the passage of
a cold front late in the week.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The overall risk for widespread flooding will continue to diminish
tonight. Areal flooding, especially in low lying areas and near
rivers and creeks, will persist for several days.

Moderate Flooding continues within much of the Neches River
basin, with major flooding occurring at the Neches River
Saltwater Barrier. Moderate flooding also continues along the
Sabine River from Bon Wier to Deweyville. Further east, flooding
remains in minor category along the Calcasieu River. Water levels
on the Neches and Sabine Rivers will be dependent on reservoir
releases and forecasts may be subject to adjustments. Otherwise, a
gradual recession is expected to develop by the end of the week.

Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website
and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the
river flood threat continues.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  85  70  88 /  10  40  10  10
LCH  71  84  73  85 /  20  20   0   0
LFT  72  86  75  88 /  20  20   0   0
BPT  71  84  74  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13