Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 260456
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1156 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

First off, all watches/advisories for our land areas have expired
as of press time, with no further watches/advisories anticipated
at the moment.

Latest sfc analysis shows the initial cold front now entering the
sern 1/4 of the forecast area, with local 88Ds showing widespread
showers/few storms along/ahead of the boundary. The front, aided
along by an approaching shortwave aloft, will continue to push
sewd, exiting the lower Atchafalaya Basin sometime after midnight.
Meanwhile, sfc analyses also show a 2ry cold front upstream
extending from the ArkLaTex back swwd to the TX Hill Country.
Regional 88Ds show scattered convection developing along this
boundary and latest CAM guidance shows the possibility of a few
showers popping up along it as it slides into the area later
tonight, mainly over our nrn zones.

Zones have been updated already to remove headlines and advertise
the changes to POPs/weather for the remainder of the first period.
All other grids look in good shape as is per latest obs/guidance.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

So far this afternoon there are two distinct line segment
features. One is just east of Sabine Basin in western Louisiana
and the other back to the west entering southeast Texas with a
pre-frontal trough. Off to the east, disorganized showers are
moving across Acadiana.

For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, upper level
jet streak will be moving into the region that should help
intensify the line moving into southeast Texas that will
eventually merge with the line ahead of it into a squall line that
will then head eastward across central and southwest Louisiana in
the early evening hours.

Inhibition that was over the forecast area this morning has eroded
away according to the 18z special sounding. Still very impressive
low level shear values with 0-3km bulk shear over 45 knots and
0-1km helicity over 300 m2s2. Instability is still rather modest,
but with the impressive shear values, these line segments will
have to be watched closely for rotation that may lead to damaging
winds or even a spin-up tornado. With that a Tornado Watch is in
effect until 8 pm for Rapides, Allen, and Jeff Davis parishes and
locations back to the west.

Of other note is the strong and gusty southerly gradient winds
associated with the tight gradient from the deep low pressure
over the Kansas/Missouri area. As the surface trough moves
through, the gradient winds will relax from west to east and a
wind advisory will remain in effect until this occurs.

Later this evening the a new watch or the current watch may need
to be extended to the east depending on how things develop over
the next few hours. CAMs do show somewhat of a slowing of the line
as it reaches Acadiana, and shower activity will likely linger for
locations southeast of Lafayette until after midnight.

During the overnight, the actual cold front will move across the
forecast area and catch-up to the convection and push it off to
the east, ending significant shower activity before daybreak.

High pressure will then build down from the Plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing a dry continental air mass with it. This will
provide rather cool nights and fair mild days.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A rather quiet period for the long term forecast. High pressure at
the surface on Thursday bringing fair and cool conditions, will
move off to the east on Friday allowing for southerly flow off the
Gulf to develop. This will bring a warming trend with more humid
conditions.

The warm and humid conditions will then continue into Easter
weekend. No significant shower activity is expected as upper level
ridging will be located over the forecast area.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Local 88Ds continue to show the convection associated with the
initial frontal boundary moving sewd, which should take it away
from the Acadiana terminals next couple hours. The main near term
issue after that is the appearance of dense fog at KAEX over the
past hour...latest guidance indicates this is likely to continue
for another hour or so before a more nwrly wind develops and
dissipates the fog. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to
develop at the remaining terminals and persist through the rest of
the TAF period.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Deep low pressure over the Plains this afternoon helping to
produce a tight gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with
strong and gusty south winds the result. Looks like at least 20
knot sustained winds with gusts over 30 knots. This is also
helping to build seas to up to 10 feet over the outer waters.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect.

This low pressure system will move off to the east tonight and
help bring a cold front from west to east over the coastal waters
and with that the gradient will decrease and winds will become
more from the northwest. The small craft advisory will continue
for the outer waters overnight as it will take awhile for seas to
decrease to below 7 feet.

A modest offshore flow will then linger over the coastal waters
through mid week as high pressure from the Plains gradually builds
in.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  71  44  68 /  80  10   0   0
LCH  54  74  49  70 /  70   0   0   0
LFT  60  79  52  72 /  80  10   0   0
BPT  54  77  50  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...25


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