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000
FXUS64 KLCH 121131
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure ridging through the
center of the country, including the wrn Gulf region, dominating
our area weather. Water vapor imagery shows troffing covering the
ern CONUS, while ridging was noted to our west from the Mexican
Plateau up through the Rockies. Combo of the nwrly flow aloft and
the nrly low-level flow which was in place last day or so has led
to a fairly dry airmass with 00z KLCH sounding showing a PWAT
value around 0.4 inches and a mean RH around 20 percent.
Accordingly, IR imagery shows clear skies prevailing across the
forecast area. Regional 88Ds were PPINE.

Still not much to talk about in the short term this morning. With
sfc high pressure expected to move to our east by tonight, and the
mid/upper-level ridge axis progged to approach the region through
the weekend, we`ll begin to see a moderation in temperatures and
a gradual uptick in moisture as the low-level flow shifts to a
more onshore direction.

Highs in the upper 70s/around 80 this afternoon will warm to the
mainly lower 80s area-wide for Sunday (cooler at the coast).
Expecting one more cool night tonight (lows generally 50-55,
except warmer coast) before the warming trend kicks in and we see
much warmer than normal temps for Sunday night.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Trending later into Monday morning, high pressure previously over
the SE CONUS shifts and merges with broad ridging extending SW from
the central Atlantic. Light to moderate ridging will remain across
the FL Peninsula to the Central Gulf of Mexico through the following
several days. Meanwhile, a new shortwave develops over the West
Coast and deepens across the Rockies and northern Plains before
stalling over the eastern Great Lakes region. With the subtropical
high well stacked over the SE CONUS, the associated trailing cold
front will be hard pressed to push south of the ARKLATEX region
before Thursday as the parent low begins to dissociate from the
frontal pattern a filling over Eastern Canada Thursday night.
Concurrently, upper level convergence over the NW CONUS then leads
to boundary to a secondary surface ridge abutting the transitioning
stationary trough extending from the Great Lakes to S’rn TX.
Hereafter, there are some signals the stationary front will shift
further south allowing POPS to enter the forecast again.

Locally over SETX and SWLA, the broad subsidence regime will lead to
positive trend for diurnal temperatures through a majority of the
week days ahead toward the mid / upper 80’s with winds mainly out of
the southeast. Partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the week
with an steady light flow of Gulf moisture capping them underneath
the ridge aloft.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions under clear skies to continue through the period
with mainly light/variable winds as high pressure slips by the
region.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Conditions look fine on the coastal waters til late in the weekend
or early next week when srly winds strengthen with a tightening
pressure gradient...expect SCEC headlines on the CWF at that time.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  78  56  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  78  55  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  79  57  80  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25