Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --020 FXUS64 KLCH 052055 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 355 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The threat of additional flooding, while not completely over, is beginning to trend downward. KLCH/KPOE radars show convection to the west and southwest of the area weakening while a few showers or storms are forming along a leftover boundary stretched across the area. All of this activity is expected to gradually dissipate around sunset as daytime instability wanes. Meanwhile, a short-lived thinning and scattering of lower cloud layers has allowed for some higher winds between 1000-2000 ft to mix down to the surface. This produced a period of very gusty winds this afternoon, with gusts peaking between 40 and 45 MPH at KBPT and KLCH. A short-fused Wind Advisory has been issued to account to these stronger winds through 7 PM this evening. The Advisory may be cancelled sooner should winds subside earlier. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the lower 80s across much of the area, right near seasonal maximums for this time of year. 24-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Showers and storms should dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Generally quiet, albeit warm and muggy, conditions are expected overnight. As winds lighten, low clouds and patchy fog could develop overnight into Monday morning. Dense fog is not expected, with visibilities falling to between 1-2 miles in a few spots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are again expected to develop across the area on Monday, but this will mostly be forced by daytime heating and boundary interactions, with less support aloft as shortwave energy will be north and northeast of the area. While PWATs should remain healthy (~1.6 to 1.8 inches), the risk for flooding will stay mainly localized, and will likely be concentrated across portions of central LA. Thus the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire this evening. Conditions will trend drier on Tuesday, beginning a much needed reprieve from the wet pattern for at least a few days. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions are expected to continue with temperatures gradually trending upward. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight, increasing to lower 70s areawide by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, daytime highs will climb into the middle to upper 80s the next couple of days as daytime insolation improved with decreasing cloud cover. 24-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Wednesday into Thursday a cold front will be sweeping south across the plains toward the gulf coast. Ahead of this boundary a warm and moist south flow will be found locally. Temperatures are expected to run several degrees above climo norms which are in the mid 80s for highs and in the low to mid 60s for lows. Forecast values are in the mid 80s to low 90s for highs and in the mid 70s for lows during both days which is more similar to June. The weak ridging in place for Wed and early Thu will slip southeast as a cold front pushes in for Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may occur along and ahead of the boundary with a cooler and drier airmass moving in for the weekend into early next week. 24-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are seen across the area. Expect a trend toward VFR at area sites during the afternoon, but scattered showers and storms could develop, resulting in rapidly lowering cigs/vsbys near airports. Convection should diminish after 00Z, with cigs lowering back to MVFR or possibly IFR at times by 06Z. Some patchy fog will be possible as well. Winds will remain generally light, out of the south. 24 && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Brief periods of marginal exercise caution conditions will be possible near the upper TX and SW LA coast from late afternoon through early morning. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into this evening with rain chances diminishing overnight and remaining limited thereafter through the week. An offshore flow is expected to develop with the passage of a cold front late in the week. 24-- End Changed Discussion --&& .HYDROLOGY...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The overall risk for widespread flooding will continue to diminish tonight. Areal flooding, especially in low lying areas and near rivers and creeks, will persist for several days. Moderate Flooding continues within much of the Neches River basin, with major flooding occurring at the Neches River Saltwater Barrier. Moderate flooding also continues along the Sabine River from Bon Wier to Deweyville. Further east, flooding remains in minor category along the Calcasieu River. Water levels on the Neches and Sabine Rivers will be dependent on reservoir releases and forecasts may be subject to adjustments. Otherwise, a gradual recession is expected to develop by the end of the week. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 24-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --AEX 67 85 70 88 / 10 40 10 10 LCH 71 84 73 85 / 20 20 0 0 LFT 72 86 75 88 / 20 20 0 0 BPT 71 84 74 87 / 10 10 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074-141-142- 241-242. TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616. Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24