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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KLCH 101417
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
917 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 910 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The line of storms continues to exit this morning, however strong
storms will remain in lower Acadiana through the next 30 min or
so. Tornado Watch 100 has been allowed to expire as the threat is
decreasing with the passage of the line.

Tide levels along the coast did not increase much above 1 foot
above MHHW and with the tide falling the Coastal Flood Adv was
canceled early for Jefferson and Cameron. Areas around Vermilion
Bay will be monitored through the next hour or two, but with winds
calming behind the line the advisory there may be canceled early
as well.

The rest of the forecast is untouched for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Our long anticipated severe weather/heavy rain event is finally
underway with local 88Ds showing a cluster of very slow moving
thunderstorms covering interior sern TX/cntl LA with various ob
networks showing up to 8 inches of rain having fallen across this
area. Meanwhile, regional 88Ds show a developing line of storms
approaching Houston metro which is progged to further strengthen and
sweep into/across the forecast area later this morning. Special 04z
KLCH sounding showed reasonable helicity to go along with good
CAPE/shear and exceptional moisture, thus all modes of severe remain
in play through the event. And accordingly, SPC has now issued a
Tornado Watch for the entire forecast area valid til 09L/14z.

In addition, no changes are planned to going hazards (Flood
Watch/Wind Advisory) based on latest guidance.

After this initial round of convection departs the region,
expecting another round, although with far less coverage, of
showers/storms associated with the advancing stacked low/sfc
frontal boundary to cross later this afternoon.

Once the afternoon precip exits the area, dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the short term period as a nwrly
flow aloft behind the departing shortwave gradually transitions
to a more wrly flow, while sfc high pressure builds over the
region. An initial burst of post-frontal cooler weather will
gradually moderate.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Slim rain chances return to the forecast for Tuesday as another
mid/upper-level shortwave combines with a limited moisture return
off the Gulf to produce widely scattered showers and storms over
our extreme nrn zones. Otherwise, the long term period of the
forecast looks to be dry.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

No significant changes to previous TAF thinking...

25

(Little change to the overall forecast thinking since the
previous package. Still expected a large swath of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to move across the region over the next 12 hours or
so, bringing frequent lighting, gusty/damaging winds, low
ceilings, and reduced VIS to all terminals. Conditions will begin
to improve west to east through the late morning into the early
afternoon. Some light showers will be possible through the
afternoon after the main threat is over however, these showers
aren`t expected to pose many issues. Conditions will improve
quickly from the afternoon into the evening hours.

17)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Extended the SCA on all of our waters based on latest guidance
this morning.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  53  75  47 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  78  56  77  51 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  80  59  77  53 / 100   0   0   0
BPT  79  54  79  53 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25