Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 220733
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
233 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Currently there are storms moving into the south CenLA / Acadiana
region with another round of storms moving across our SETX
Counties. Models are struggling to resolve the timing on the
latter squall line of storms moving out of the area, however the
general consensus is that it will weaken as it moves across us and
exit the CWA by mid to late morning. We could see some isolated
showers behind this, however that will be quick to taper.

As the base of the upper level low moves into the ArkLaMiss area,
we could also see some isolated wrap around showers across parts
of the CWA, mainly north of the I- 10 corridor, this evening.
Regardless the moisture will still be in the area so we will not
see much in the way of drier conditions right off the bat.

Better and more pleasant conditions can be expected for part of
the weekend. While the front will deliver nothing in the way of
cooler temperatures, it will be drier on Saturday. Over the entire
long term, MaxTs will be in the 70s with MinTs in the 40s and 50.

Southerly flow will be back and elevated on Sunday, bringing in more
moisture ahead of a system expected to bring another round of
active weather in the long term.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024


Active, unsettled weather looks likely for the start of the long
term however, the later half of the week will bring quiet and
seasonal conditions. On Monday, a significant upper level trough will
be deepening over the western CONUS, with strong SWrly flow overhead
providing a steady stream of moisture aloft. At the surface, a
couple of cold fronts will be over the southern and central Plains
early Monday, with brisk onshore flow expected in their advance. As
moisture increases at both the surface and aloft throughout Monday
forecast soundings show PWATs climbing into the 1.5-1.6" range by
the later half of the day, which is above the 90th percentile
according to SPC climo. As moisture increases so will
instability/lift as the aforementioned pair of cold fronts dive
towards the CWA late Monday and the western CONUS trough shifts
towards TX. SPC has outlined part of the CWA, mainly our LA parishes
north of I-10, in a Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, while WPC
has included all of our LA parishes as well as a small part of SE TX
in a Day 5 Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Both the severe and
excessive rainfall risk look to be mainly for Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday morning at this time, with all risks looking to come
to an end early Tuesday as the cold fronts sweep through the region.

Conditions should improve quickly through Tuesday, as winds shift NW
behind the front and usher in a cooler and drier airmass. Skies will
clear out by Tuesday afternoon, with temps expected to top out in
the low to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will settle overhead early
Wed, traversing the region through the later half of the week
allowing winds to gradually turn more easterly and southeasterly
from Thurs into Fri. As a result, a slow warming trend looks to
commence from Wed-Fri, with highs in the lower 70s on Wed rebounding
into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Friday. Otherwise, the second
half of the week looks quiet, with no convection expected.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions are present across the region with light to
moderate rain across Acadiana. Thunderstorms will form along a
boundary in Texas and will move across the region from the west to
east. This round of convection will start around midnight (06Z).
The line should be done around sunrise (12Z) with lingering low
clouds into the mid morning. While the thunderstorms conditions
will drop to IFR or LIFR with heavy rain and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A secondary strong line of showers and thunderstorms are moving
through the coastal waters this morning. West to northwest winds
will develop in the wake of the front and strengthen Friday night
into Saturday. Beginning early Sunday, winds will turn back
onshore increase in onshore flow ahead of another incoming system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  50  71  45 /  50  20   0   0
LCH  75  53  74  51 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  75  55  72  49 /  70  10   0   0
BPT  77  54  76  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ430-432-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ435-436-
     452-455-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...14


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