Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240947
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
447 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

At present the surface high pressure is over the ArkLaMiss area with
winds in our area out of the east and ENE. Over the morning hours,
we will see the high pressure move off and winds turn out of the
south. All eyes are now on a system making its way into the Rockies
as I type. The pressure gradient between the departing high and
incoming system will tighten, leading to stronger southerly flow
this afternoon and tonight. While it will not be quite breezy enough
to lead to a Wind Advisory today, its very possible that one will
need to be issued tomorrow. Gradient winds alone will be in the 20
to 30 MPH range with higher gusts possible. Another issue that will
present itself with the elevated southerly winds is the influx of
moisture it will bring. Dewpoints tonight and tomorrow will be in
the mid to upper 60s with PWATs above the 90th percentile.

As this system and attached front continue to push east, we will see
showers and storms start to spread through the area as early as
tomorrow morning with activity increasing in intensity and becoming
more widespread over the afternoon hours. As a result of this,
nearly the entire CWA is in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.
In addition to that, we are also in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall save the Golden Triangle and southern Jasper and Newton
Counties. In regards to severe weather, all modes will be possible
with the main threats appearing to be damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes. QPF totals have dropped a bit over the last 24h,
however the same thought of keeping an eye on parts of CenLA remain.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Post-frontal surface high pressure will be building south from the
Plains into the forecast area as we begin the long term, resulting
in a dry and mild start to the period. Both Wed and Thurs will bring
pleasant conditions with slightly below average temps, with highs
expected to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s while overnight lows
will dip into the low 40s to low 50s.

The surface high begins to slide off to the east as we move into
Friday, while aloft ridging will be building across the center of
the country. As surface winds return to an onshore flow by early
Friday moisture will begin to gradually increase once again as we
head into the weekend. Friday looks to be fairly seasonal as
moisture return starts out slow, with highs in the mid to upper 70s
and lows in the 50s on tap. After a full day of return flow moisture
begins to ramp up a bit over the weekend, with dewpoints returning
to the upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon highs topping out around
80 degrees both Sat and Sun. Rain chances will however, remain near
zero through the Easter weekend.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the TAF period.
Tonight winds will be from the north around 10 knots slowly
shifting to the east around sunrise. High clouds will start to
move in near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Winds have begun to shift east and will shift out of the
southeast later in the day as ridging moves east. Onshore flow
will then strengthen today and into Monday as the low pressure
deepens over the Plains and brings a front into the region. A
combination of elevated winds and seas will bring about Advisory
conditions starting today. The front will then be accompanied by
scattered to numerous storms Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  61  76  51 /   0  10  90  50
LCH  73  66  76  56 /   0   0  80  30
LFT  74  66  79  61 /   0   0  60  80
BPT  75  66  77  55 /   0  10  80  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ430-432-435-436-455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ450-452-470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...14


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