748
FXUS64 KLIX 030211
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
911 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Earlier convection that was primarily over western portions of the
CWA has dissipated. The dissipation process did produce about a
20-30 minute surge of winds that weakened as it moved eastward.
Gusts that were in the 30-40 mph range at Baton Rouge and New
Roads had diminished to around 25 mph as it reached Interstate 55.

the next few hours should be dry, but the earlier forecast and at
least some of the convection allowing modelsshow potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to western portions
of the area by sunrise Friday. Won`t change that portion of the
forecast for now, as the 00z LIX sounding was rather moist at 1.87
inches. While there`s likely some brief mid-level drying, forecast
soundings show that moisture returning pretty quickly to the west.

Also continues to be at least a low end threat of fog prior to
sunrise over southwest Mississippi, but that will require the
cirrus overcast currently over the area to depart and cirrus
upstream to remain to the west.

Update coming out shortly to handle evening forecast trends, with
little change in the actual forecast beyond midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Rather difficult forecast as convection has periodically gotten
into the CWA before quickly dissipating as it pushed farther east.
This makes sense as the mesoanalysis showed the theta e axis was
over the Atchafalaya and as storms work across it they began to
weaken. Also the best LL convergence and upper lvl divergence was
back to our west. The best mid lvl forcing hung around the coast
and to our west-southwest. This has allowed some stronger storms
to continue to push east along the coast but still as they worked
east they quickly weakened. CAMs have been all over the place
from not having anything moving in to bringing the weakening
squall line through almost the entire area. We are somewhere
between with showers and a few storms getting into the area and
now as far east as I-55 but we do anticipate these to continue to
weaken. However with broad lift still streaming in from the west-
southwest flow aloft we could still pop off a few showers and
maybe a thunderstorm or two across the area.

Fog will be a possibility again tonight but if rain is able to
quickly develop during the overnight and early morning hours dense
fog should not be as much of a problem but areas of moderate fog
with patchy dense can not be ruled out.

Biggest question in the short term is tomorrow. A lot of the
guidance is indicating a decent shot of rain for the western half
of the CWA and many want to get things going rather early. There
is even some indication that there could be pockets of heavy rain.
Overall not too concerned about that threat however, given what
occurred over seTX and swLA the environment is set up for locally
heavy rain but that still should be west of us. So what is
leading to this development which could begin overnight to our
west and move into the area during the mid to late morning hours.
Honestly this is a very difficult question to answer and it could
be something as simple as a subtle s/w. Having a hard time finding
it in the WV. The next best source of lift is located in the mid
lvl jet streaming from the north-central Gulf wsw across Mexico
and coming out of the Pac but that next piece of strong lift would
get to the LA coast by 2/3z tonight and that is not it unless
convection start WAY earlier than what any guidance is hinting
at. It looks like the support would be coming out of the 4 corners
and should be moving across the TX/OK panhandles in the next 3-6
hours. Abundant moisture is in place with PWs around 1.5 and
approaching 1.8 overnight with most of the area at or abv 1.7
before midday Friday. Other favorable features will be the
diffluence aloft with what could be a coupled jet like feature
develop over LA west of the MS River. So right now the biggest
question is can we get something to develop and does it initiate
to our west or over the western portions of the CWA. If there is
enough support to spark some sort of MCS many other features are
there for locally heavy rain. Locally for our area the antecedent
conditions are rather dry and we can likely handle some decent
rain. The problem would be if storms train over any area that has
very poor drainage or if we get a storm that anchors itself over a
place like BR or southwestern Wilkinson county and tries to back
build.

Storms should come to an end during the afternoon with s/w ridging
Friday night. We then move into weak zonal flow through the
weekend with little to no concerns for rain but temperatures will
be warming. Highs this weekend will likely be in the mid to upper
80s and we could see some heat index readings in the lower 90s but
honestly this won`t be that bad compared to what we could be
looking at late next week as models want to say hello to the 90s
and we aren`t talking about and we aren`t talking about grunge,
hip-hop, or Pokemon. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Anomalously warm conditions are the biggest headlines for next
week, especially going into mid next week. Zonal flow continues
for the southeast CONUS but ridging will start to build in from
the Gulf of Mexico. Although a few weak shortwaves will pass
through parts of Louisiana, precip chances will remain relatively
low. Both temperatures and dew points are expected to climb with
high temperatures being in the low to mid 90s and dew points
getting into the 70s. Records on Wed are possibly threatened, the
NBM has mid 90s in Baton Rouge and New Orleans (record is 92 and
91, respectively). Regardless of smashing records or not, it`ll
definitely be a full dose of summer weather. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Convection over the western portion of the area has been
dissipating rapidly over the last hour, with some indications of a
weak wake low. It has produced a 20-30 minute period with wind
gusts to 20 to 30 knots at KMCB/KBTR/KHZR over the last hour.
We`ll see if it maintains magnitude as it gets into the KHDC
terminal area in the next hour or so. Most terminals with VFR
ceilings at this time, but would expect deterioration to MVFR
during the evening, and potentially to IFR briefly around sunrise.
Another round of SHRA/TSRA possible during the morning hours on
Friday, but it looks like conditions should improve somewhat
toward sunset Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Outside of convection everything is rather quiet in the Gulf.
High pressure will dominate through much of the forecast and
remained centered off to our east-northeast. This will allow the
persistent light to slightly moderate onshore flow to continue.
Convection really only looks to be an issue for the next 24 to 36
hours and than that drops off. With any storm locally higher winds
and seas can be expected. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  79  63  84 /  20  60  20  30
BTR  70  84  68  88 /  30  60  10  20
ASD  70  83  67  87 /  20  30  10  10
MSY  72  83  72  87 /  30  30   0  10
GPT  72  82  69  84 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  69  85  67  87 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...CAB