966
FXUS64 KLIX 040837
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Mostly zonal flow to slight ridging will stay around the area
today and into Sunday morning. This will mostly suppress any rain
chances today and Sunday. However the moisture advection from
southeasterly flow will produce some spotty showers this afternoon
and Sunday afternoon. Due to the suppression from the ridge, it
will help keep the showers and thunderstorms scattered at most.
Although the ridge will help suppress things, the showers and
storms that do form look to have quality instability to work with
over 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with. So, the some of the showers
could be strong, but we do not have enough mid-level dry air or
cool air aloft for a substantial wind or hail threat. Needless to
say, tomorrow and Sunday will be a very typical summer day with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong. PoPs were adjusted slightly to account for where
the short-range models are depicting shower development, but it
was not much.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Most of the short-range guidance depicts an MCS coming out of SE
Texas and heading east through south Louisiana Sunday night. The
guidance suggests that the complex will die before entering the
area as diurnally-driven stable air sets up across the area. So,
at most, there might be light stratiform rain leftover from the
MCS Sunday night.

Starting Monday, shortwave ridging sets back up over the area. Due
to the ridging and subsequent onshore flow, we will be heating
back up to start the week. The trough ejections that look to take
place way north of us across the Midwest. This will keep us in
quasi-zonal flow to even slight ridging throughout the week next
week. The continued onshore flow and ridging will allow us to heat
up to above-normal temperatures throughout the week. It looks like
Thursday could be the first day where it feels like 100 degrees
due to the moisture and warm air advection, so make sure it does
not sneak up on you.

The end of the week is a little more uncertain when looking at the
ensemble clustering. Some of the guidance suggests that we finally
get a trough to dig far enough south to send a cold front by
Friday and bring some rain along with it. Although that seems most
probable, we are getting to that time of year where cold fronts
start to not make it all the way down here and the trough ejects
too far north, so although that seems the most probable now, do
not be surprised if the front does not end up making it all the
way down here and we stay hot and mostly dry into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Most terminals are VFR at issuance time, but KGPT and KASD have
developed BKN018 ceilings over the last hour. There is certainly
some low level moisture around after the rainfall Friday
afternoon, but the question will be whether we end up with fog or
stratus again toward sunrise, as has been the question the last
few nights.

Multiple MCS to our west from the northern Plains to the Rio
Grande River, with cirrus spreading this way, but thinning as they
approach. Dew points are about 5-8 degrees lower than they were
24 hours ago, but so are temperatures. For now, the expectation is
that stratus near FL010 will be the main occurrence at most
terminals, with the exceptions being KMCB and KHUM where TEMPO
LIFR conditions will be carried around sunrise.

Expect MVFR ceilings at most or all terminals at mid morning
Saturday as cumulus field develops, but could see improvement to
VFR at midday. Threat of SHRA/TSRA appears to be lower on
Saturday, but some models carrying a weak shortwave that could
trigger scattered cells, with the "most" favored terminal KMCB.
That`s the only one we`ll carry a mention for now. Anything that
does develop should dissipate toward sunset, with the same cycle
anticipated overnight tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Onshore flow is expected to continue for the next week or so as we
stay on the western side of the surface high over the Atlantic. A
potential frontal passage could happen on Friday, but given the
tome of year and how far out it is, it is uncertain whether it
makes it to the area, much less to the waters. If it does not make
it far enough south, expect light onshore flow to continue for
the entire forecast period, with Wednesday having the strongest
winds as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low
pressure development across the central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  65  84  66 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  89  69  87  70 /  30  10  40  10
ASD  87  68  87  69 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  86  72  87  72 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  85  70  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  88  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JZ