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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KLIX 151459
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
959 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Early morning upper air pattern showed upper ridging from south
Texas to the Dakotas, with an upper low centered near Las Vegas.
At the surface, high pressure extended from near Bermuda westward
across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. A stationary frontal
boundary was well to the north of the area near Interstate 70.
Other than a little bit of cirrus, skies were mostly clear across
the local area at 2 AM CDT with temperatures ranging from the mid
50s to mid 60s. A few minor reductions in visibilities were noted
near the Mississippi River, but no indications of dense fog at
this time.

The axis of the upper ridge will shift to the east of the area on
Tuesday, as the upper low near Las Vegas lifts northeastward to
near Omaha by Tuesday evening. Southerly flow will strengthen a
bit, especially on Tuesday, but precipitable water values don`t
really look to increase significantly. Other than somewhat of an
increase in cloud cover, especially for a few hours around sunrise
Tuesday, any sensible weather impacts should be limited. NBM
deterministic numbers for highs are generally near or above global
deterministic numbers, but yesterday`s highs indicate NBM values
are reasonable. Forecast dew points overnight should be a
reasonable solution.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

With the upper low lifting into the Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday, the upper ridge rebuilds along the Gulf Coast, with the
surface boundary remaining well north of the area. Can`t rule out
a stray shower or storm over southwest Mississippi by Thursday
afternoon entirely, but GFS PoPs look to be a bit too high and
like the NBM PoPs better. For the weekend, ridging gets suppressed
a bit southward. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs move
several shortwaves through zonal flow across the southern states
Friday through the weekend. The strongest of the shortwaves looks
to be on Sunday, with the ECMWF about 6 hours quicker than the
GFS. For now, will ride with the NBM solution, with chance PoPs,
mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday. NBM high temperatures
running above both the global operational numbers Thursday/Friday,
and likely to be a degree or two too warm, as 90 degree
temperatures in April are a rare event, even in southeast
Louisiana. Baton Rouge has only exceeded 90 degrees in April 3
times in the last 25 years, and two of those were back to back in
2006.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Most terminals VFR this morning. The main exception has been KMCB,
which has been primarily at IFR or lower for the past 3 hours,
occasionally at or below field minima. KHDC was briefly
experiencing low conditions but improved shortly before issuance
time. Expect KMCB to improve by about 14z. Little in the way of
clouds expected for the daytime hours today, but likely to see
cirrus level clouds increase toward sunset. With low level
moisture expected to continue to increase overnight tonight, most
terminals expected to see MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop beyond
06z Tuesday, probably closer to 10z. Those ceilings would be
expected to improve by mid-morning Tuesday. Southeasterly winds
will start to become more prevalent this afternoon with most
terminals near or above 10 knots, with somewhat stronger winds
anticipated during the daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 958 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Overall, expect marine conditions to be quiet, with the only area
of concern at this time being a likelihood for Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines on Tuesday and Tuesday evening when the
pressure gradient will be a bit tighter than surrounding periods.
The next period of stronger winds beyond that appears to be late
in the weekend or early next week as a frontal boundary works into
the area. But that is beyond the scope of the current marine
forecast package.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  62  82  66  82 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  67  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  65  82  68  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  68  83  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  65  78  67  78 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  62  80  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS