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000
FXUS64 KLIX 090446
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Key Message: Potential for significant severe weather/heavy
rainfall Wednesday.

Upper ridging from Florida to the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon. Upper lows over Minnesota and western Arizona. At the
surface, high pressure along the Carolina coast,, with low
pressure over Wisconsin. A frontal boundary extended from the
Wisconsin low to Oklahoma and west Texas. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms were generally near and north of Interstate 10
at 3 PM CDT. The precipitation had cooled temperatures to the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

Most or all of the precipitation should continue to move to the
north and northeast into Mississippi and Alabama near or shortly
after sunset. Forecast soundings hold precipitable water values
near 1.3 inches later tonight and Tuesday, which should help in
keeping any precipitation development on the isolated side through
at least Tuesday evening. Similar to today, we should see some
rather filtered sunshine, allowing temperatures to get into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

The Arizona upper low will shift eastward to near El Paso by
tomorrow afternoon, and to central Texas by sunrise Wednesday
before opening up and lifting to the northeast near Paducah
Kentucky by sunrise Thursday.

As the surface low deepens late tomorrow night and Wednesday
morning, winds in the 850 to 950 mb layer will increase from near
35 knots to at or above 50 knots by mid-morning Wednesday.
Precipitable water values are expected to increase to nearly 2
inches, which is pretty much at the top of the chart for the first
half of April. CAPE, shear, helicity, mid level lapse rates are
much more than sufficient for severe weather across much of the
area, with severe weather (potentially significant) possible from
about Interstate 10 northward. Storms could move into western
portions of the area as early as sunrise to mid morning Wednesday.
It should be noted that there are a few model solutions that are a
bit slower with convective development on Wednesday. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
for Wednesday from Interstate 10 northward, with a Slight Risk for
the Louisiana coastal parishes.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, with a quick 2 to 4 inches
not out of the question Wednesday. Fortunately, much of the area
has been comparatively dry for the last 2 weeks. With the
convection expected to be fairly progressive, will hold off on a
Flood/Flash Flood Watch for now, but one may be necessary in later
forecast packages.

Wind Advisories may also be needed on Wednesday, and will address
that in a later forecast package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

The apex of the upper level trough that brings mid week potential
for heavy rainfall and severe weather will be just east of the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. Associated convection should
be well east of the CWA by then as well. Low level cloud deck
wrapping around the base of the trough will probably keep at least
northern portions of the local area cloudy through the morning
timeframe. Could also have spotty showers in the same area but not
high enough probabilities at this point to include any in the
forecast. Sharpening surface trough east of the upper trough will
enhance post-frontal surface winds as the gradient tightens. Model
boundary layer winds forecast to be in the 20 to 25 knot range
across the CWA means a wind advisory may be needed, at least for
locations south of Lake Pontchartrain.

The remainder of the forecast period, which goes through this
weekend, looks to be quite benign. Upper level flow will vary from
zonal to weak ridging. No rain forecasted and temps will steadily
moderate a little each day with highs in the lower to mid 80s this
weekend.

MEFFER

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Terminals are a mixed bag with a few at VFR and the majority of
them at MVFR or lower. Showers/storms have moved out of the area
for tonight but gusty winds out of the east/southeast are
expected. Ceilings will generally be poor overnight with some
marginal improvement tomorrow. Some brief breaks into low VFR are
possible, but the majority of the time will remain in MVFR. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

In the short term, will hold onto the Small Craft Exercise Caution
early this evening, morphing into Small Craft Advisory this
evening. Extended the Advisory through Wednesday afternoon, and it
may need to go beyond that point. Additionally, we may need a Gale
Watch or Warning by late in the day Wednesday. Winds likely to
remain an issue through much of Thursday into Thursday night
before conditions improve over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  78  66  76 /  40  30  30 100
BTR  70  85  72  81 /  20  20  40 100
ASD  67  81  69  79 /  10  10  30 100
MSY  70  82  72  80 /  10  10  40 100
GPT  66  78  68  76 /  20  10  10 100
PQL  65  80  67  78 /  20  10  10  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW