Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 241131
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
631 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper troughs along both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts this
morning, with ridging over the Mississippi River Valley. At the
surface, high pressure from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf of
Mexico. Mostly clear skies this morning with temperatures
generally in the 50s.

Main concern in the short term will be winds on Monday. High
pressure will slide off to the east today, with winds becoming
southeasterly this afternoon. Longwave trough will be moving
through the Intermountain West and the Rockies today and tonight.
As low pressure deepens over Colorado and Kansas this afternoon
and tonight, the pressure gradient between that low and high
pressure along the Atlantic Coast will increase winds across the
area, mainly during the late overnight hours tonight and during
the day on Monday. High probabilities of 25 mph sustained winds
and/or 40 mph gusts areawide suggest the need for Wind Advisories
across the area for the daytime hours Monday, and much of the
night Monday night. Main concerns will be on elevated roadways and
east-west oriented roads. There is at least a small threat of
coastal flooding in the more prone southeast and south facing
shorelines Monday afternoon during the high tide cycle, and a
Coastal Flood Advisory may be necessary for that period, but
confidence isn`t quite high enough to issue at this time. We are
in the neap tide portion of the cycle...fortunately.

With the upper trough and surface cold front moving toward the
area Monday afternoon, scattered showers are expected to develop,
but any organized thunderstorm development appears more likely to
hold off until near or after sunset Monday, as forecast soundings
hint at decent capping around 800 mb for much of the day. Dew
points will start out in the 40s today, climb through the 50s
overnight tonight, reaching the lower to middle 60s on Monday.

An increase in high cloud cover would be the only thing preventing
high temperatures from reaching the middle 70s or higher today,
with lower 70s somewhat more realistic. The NBM middle of the
guidance envelope solutions for tonight and Monday are a good
compromise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Multi-hazard concerns overnight Monday night are really the only
significant topic during the extended period.

The upper trough moving through the Plains States Monday will be
lifting northeastward toward the Great Lakes and getting captured
by the northern stream upper low over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces Tuesday. The surface low will be near Minneapolis by
sunrise Tuesday and well into Ontario Wednesday morning. The
trailing cold front will move across the local area Monday night,
exiting the area near or after sunrise Tuesday.

A strong low level jet (45-50 knots at 900 mb) will set up across
the area late Monday afternoon and Monday night with directional
and speed shear values rather concerning (50-60 knots bulk shear
and 0-1km SR Helicity exceeding 300). MLCAPE values near 1000
J/kg will be in place, as will mid level lapse rates in the 6.5 to
7C/km range. This is likely to produce a quasi-linear convective
system (QLCS) along the prefrontal trough axis. While the most
favorable dynamics and moisture will be just north of the area,
closer to Interstate 20, there`s enough of a threat of severe
weather for SPC to include just about the entire CWA in a Slight
Risk of severe weather for Monday night with the main threats
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Locally heavy rain also
likely. Areal average rain amounts likely to be in the 1-2 inch
range with spot higher amounts. Overall, this shouldn`t create
widespread flooding issues, but a few street flooding issues
aren`t out of the question.

Will continue Monday`s Wind Advisory through most of the overnight
hours Monday night. With the main low pressure lifting well
northeast of the area by Tuesday morning, don`t expect significant
wind issues behind the front. There is at least some concern about
minor coastal flooding in the normally prone southeast and south
facing shorelines until the wind shifts late Monday night or
Tuesday morning.

While the front passes to the east Tuesday, the longwave trough
will take considerably longer to pass to the east, probably around
Thursday, with upper ridging moving into the area for the Easter
weekend. With low level dry air in place, little or no
precipitation is expected beyond Tuesday morning, as dew points in
the 50s won`t even return until Saturday. The Wednesday-Friday
period will see cool morning lows, especially north of Interstate
10, with the northern half of the area seeing lows drop into the
40s on several mornings. Highs will generally be in the 70s,
potentially getting into the 80s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals this morning, and likely to remain
that way for most or all of the forecast period. Main forecast
concern during this forecast period will be the potential for
gusty winds, particularly beyond 00z Monday. Gusts to 25 to 30
knots possible as pressure gradient tightens. Also some potential
for LLWS at KMCB toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

While wind speeds have dropped off a bit this morning, that won`t
last long. As low pressure moves out of the Rockies and the
pressure gradient tightens, wind speeds will begin to increase
again late this afternoon. Will institute a Small Craft Advisory
for all waters beginning at 00z this evening, and upgrade it to
Gale Warning at 12z Monday through about 09z Tuesday for frequent
gusts at or above 35 knots. Conditions should relax during the day
on Tuesday into midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  57  77  58 /   0   0  50 100
BTR  75  64  82  61 /   0   0  50  90
ASD  71  61  78  63 /   0   0  20  90
MSY  72  64  80  65 /   0   0  30  90
GPT  69  61  74  63 /   0  10  10  80
PQL  72  59  76  65 /   0  10  10  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW


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