-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
052
FXUS64 KLIX 150447
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1147 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGE: Severe weather and excessive rainfall threats return to
the area by Thursday night through Saturday morning. Exact details
remain uncertain at this range, but we will continue to monitor the
progress of this system over the next few days.

Aside from feathered cirrus from convective blowoff associated with
more MCS activity over the central Gulf of Mexico, we have broken
out into sunny skies areawide. This has allowed temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 80s, right around average for this time of
year. A somewhat more balmy and "cooler" night expected tonight as
radiational cooling will be more efficient and surface high pressure
builds overhead.

Wednesday afternoon will approach the 90F mark at many locations as
a shortwave ridge builds in and high pressure keeps skies largely
clear. Light northwest flow will also assist in some subtle
compressional warming from higher elevations. On Thursday, winds
then flip back southerly and gradually increase along with upper-
level sky cover in association with the next approaching system that
could bring impacts to our area. Return flow will allow moisture to
surge back north during the day on Thursday which will set the stage
for the next round of excessive rainfall and severe weather threats
to end the week.

Pertaining to excessive rainfall and severe weather threat:
A trough within the subtropical jetstream pattern will eject out
of SW CONUS/Northern Mexico on Thursday morning providing ample
lift and open warm sector for widespread convective activity to
initiate across the Southern Great Plains by the
afternoon/evening. The primary area to watch will be a smaller
leading shortwave within this flow which could assist in initiate
warm sector convection across the Sabine River Basin which could
organize and move northeast, clipping northern portions of our
area through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. While we
are outlooked for an excessive rainfall threat during this
period, the extent of impacts further east into our area are more
uncertain at this time.

The more notable risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall
threat will come on Friday as the main trough pushes northeast into
the ArkLaTex region and a trailing shortwave trough positioned
further south provides a more focused area of lift that could
initiate a more robust area of deep convection along the Texas coast
extending northeast into southern Louisiana and beyond Friday night.
Exact placement and timing of these troughs will be crucial. It is
possible that we see multiple waves of convection pass near or
through our area over the course of 36 hours which could drastically
alter the thermodynamic and kinematic environments with each
successive wave of convection has to work with. Therefore, the
extent of impacts over our area associated with this event remains
highly uncertain at this time, but it is safe to say that the
threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall has increased for
this period.

Once the main trough lifts into Friday night, the primary concern
after that will be lingering excessive rainfall threat as a boundary
stalls in generally west to east orientation along the LA coast.
Exact placement of where this stalls could prolong the potential for
heavy rain into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The "cold" front associated with the system on Friday will move
through during the day on Saturday, with quieter weather currently
forecast Sunday and to start the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mostly VFR, clear skies, and light winds will prevail outside a
brief period of possibly MVFR or lower CIGS between 11-14z, with
the highest chances at MCB.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light winds and calmer seas will prevail through Thursday as high
pressure sets up overhead. Onshore flow increases with winds up to
10-15 knots by Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next
system. Will need to monitor progress of showers and storms by
Friday morning and into the weekend which could cause higher winds
and seas than what is currently forecasted. Cannot rule out wake
low activity in association with strong complexes of thunderstorms
especially Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  60  86  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  90  67  90 /   0   0   0  30
ASD  66  91  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  69  89  72  88 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  66  89  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  65  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...TJS