824
FXUS64 KLIX 050216
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
916 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Public forecast was updated to remove mention of evening
showers/storms, as they have dissipated. Traffic cams along
Interstate 55 would indicate that lowered visibilities reported
in the McComb observation are very limited in areal extent. No
other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge
where the flow is fairly zonal. North/northwest of the local area,
the upper level pattern is fairly complex with a couple troughs as
well as multiple shortwaves spread across this portion of the
country. One of those weak shortwaves, seen on water vapor
imagery, is moving northeastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley. This feature will play some part in convection the rest of
this afternoon/evening by providing some lift. The probably
bigger portion of initiation and maintenance comes from
instability created by abnormally warm surface temps. Mid 80s to
90 degrees aftn temps, while still cool aloft, and ample moisture
at the surface is a pretty textbook early summertime pattern with
the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked
by SPC, strong to possibly marginally severe storms with hail and
gusty winds will be possible. PW around 1.5" or less will be the
biggest limiting factor to convective coverage.

Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of today with yet another
shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley. Global models
suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer
to the CWA than the one today. That would aide in small but
appreciable increase in coverage over the the CWA. However, still
looking at pretty much the same area of impact...SW MS and areas
of SELA northwest of an Gonzales to Bogalusa line. Probably won`t
see much, if any, convection southeast of that line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat
zonal Monday before the ridge centered south of the local area
expands across the northern Gulf Coast and across portions of the
southeastern US. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection
as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread
is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the
lower to mid 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower
80s with records in the low 90s. So pretty likely to see some
records broken. Forecast heat indices peak in the mid 90s to 100
degrees Wed/Thu. Although not nearly warm enough for heat advisory
criteria, early summer heat often catches people off guard and
could see some local heat related impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Isolated late afternoon TSRA necessitate VCTS at issuance time for
KMCB/KBTR, although there may not be direct impacts before
convection dissipates in the next hour or two. Most of the
overnight hours should remain VFR, but expect a period around
sunrise of 2-3 hours where IFR or lower conditions will be
possible at several terminals, especially KMCB.Any flight
restrictions Sunday morning should start to improve by 15z. Areal
coverage of precipitation is expected to be too low to justify in
prevailing conditions Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the
Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds. Small variations
in the pressure gradient from day to day will result in
fluctuations in wind speeds and seas but generally expecting
around 10 to 15kts through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  84  66  84 /  20  50  10  30
BTR  69  88  70  88 /  10  50  10  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  72  86  73  87 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  70  85  71  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  67  87  69  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME