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000
FXUS65 KLKN 131044
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
344 AM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy this afternoon with hazy conditions in
many areas due to blowing dust. Rain and snow showers spread in
from the west later today and tonight. Much cooler on Sunday with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. An upper level low
currently centered just off the central CA coast will keep a warm
and southerly flow pushing up through central and northern NV
today. Afternoon highs will remain 10-15 degrees above normal
today, with temperatures in valley locations ranging from mid 60s
to mid 70s. Latest guidance is a little slower with the eastward
progression of the system, and as such now expecting much less
shower and thunderstorm activity for this afternoon. Winds will be
the primary concern this afternoon, with no change to the high
wind warning for NW Nye county, or the wind advisories for much of
the rest of central NV today. Blowing dust will create hazy skies
over much of the CWA today, with reductions in visibility likely
in some areas by the mid to late afternoon hours and into this
evening.

This evening the low along the central CA coast will slide S-SE,
hugging the southern CA coastline, with showers reaching NW Nye,
Lander and western Humboldt counties this evening. Late tonight
and Sunday the upper level low makes its eastward push, passing
over NV with shower activity possible across the entire CWA. Much
cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the low to mid 50s,
which will be around 20 degrees cooler than high temperatures this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon,
mainly across central and northeastern portions of the CWA. Showers
taper off from NW to SE Sunday evening and night as the low exits
NV into southern UT and AZ.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Upper level low will continue to shift eastward across the
central Rockies allowing isolated to scattered shower chances to
come to the end Monday evening. Upper level short wave ridge will
transit the area for Tuesday and Wednesday, ridge axis will favor
NW flow aloft which will conditions dry and allow for warming
temperatures. By Thursday a broad long wave ridge will setup off
shore of Baja California and will build northward along the west
coast through Saturday, this will keep NW to WNW flow aloft over
NV keeping the quiet weather pattern and slow warming trend
continuing into the weekend.
Temperatures and Winds: As the upper low departs and shower
chances end, temperatures will start warm, as high pressure builds
across the Silver State. Highs will start Monday in the low 50s
to mid 60s, warming into the upper 60s to low 80s by Saturday
afternoon. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows
Monday morning in the upper 20s to upper 30s, warming slowly into
the upper 30s to low 50s Saturday morning. Winds Monday will be
breezy to strong out of the NW at 25 to 35 MPH with a gusts up to
50 mph possible. By Tuesday afternoon winds relax some as the low
moves away and ridging builds in lasting through Saturday winds
will remain out of the NW but speeds will be 5 to 15 MPH with
gusts up to 25 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...A strong storm system will bring strong gusty winds to
the much of Nevada during the day on Saturday. Winds will begin to
accelerate across the area after 1700Z. Wind direction will be
from the south-southeast with speeds of 15-25 knots with gusts
around 30 knots across the I-80 corridor. Stronger winds are
expected across central Nevada at KELY with gusts around 40 knots
from the south and 45 knots at KTPH. Haze generated from lofted
dust from dry lake beds are expected to reduce visibility at KTPH
and KELY Saturday afternoon. In addition, late day showers and
thunderstorms along with virga will likely present short term
aviation impacts at KWMC around 00Z. Probability is lower for
showers at KTPH so left out of current TAF forecast. Winds will
diminish late Saturday after 00Z with showers and possible
thunderstorms moving into central and north-central after 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Accelerated melting of the mountain snowpack
continues today as temperatures remain well above normal. Gusty
southerly winds will also contribute to the increased rate of
snowmelt, with elevated and swift flows on many regional waterways
through at least tonight.

The Bruneau River is currently in minor flood stage. The Owyhee
River near Mountain City is currently in action stage, and may
reach minor flood stage tonight or early Sunday morning.
Wildhorse Dam is currently at action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka
County...White Pine County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

96/98/93