000
FXUS65 KLKN 182125
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
225 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather across the region is expected for
the rest of week. A cooling trend occurs next week with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night

A trough of low pressure exits east with zonal flow over the
region, bringing warm and dry conditions for much of the day
Friday. Afternoon highs will warm into the mid to upper 60s across
northern NV and upper 60s to lower 70s across central NV.
Overnight lows will mostly be in the upper 30s to lower 40s under
partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance combined with
instability may lead to a 10-15% chance of light rain showers in
northeastern Nye and southern White Pine Counties Friday afternoon
and evening.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday Night

Antecedent mid-level atmospheric moisture will combine with
daytime heating under a zonal flow pattern to bring cumulus
buildups and maybe a few showers mainly to higher elevation
mountain ranges Saturday afternoon. However, chances for any
measurable precipitation remain 15% or below. Gusty west-
southwest winds are expected across northwestern Nevada Saturday
with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph with lower
wind speeds farther east and south.

A subtle short wave and weak cold front will push instability
into central and far eastern Nevada Sunday but marginal convective
environment will likely yield just cumulus buildups during the
afternoon. However, expect gusty winds from the west-northwest as
the short wave traverses the Great Basin region. Temperatures over
the weekend will still be quite warm ranging from the 60s across
far northern Nevada to the mid to upper 70s across the lower
elevations of northern Nye County.

Nothing too exciting Monday but overall zonal pattern begins to
shift Monday night into Tuesday. A trough advancing towards the
CA coast and more favorable upper-level dynamics over the region
will promote more convective showers across the area. Then on
Wednesday, a deformation axis could develop over the state and
bring a SW-NE oriented band of showers and thunderstorms right
through the CWA from Tonopah to Montello in NE Elko county.
However, confidence remains low in terms of precipitation amount
and placement given the larger ensemble member spreads from GEFS
and the ECM. The larger scale pattern of troughing across the
western U.S. will continue for the latter part of next week
bringing better chances for more widespread rain and mountain snow
to the area. Temperatures will generally decline after Wednesday,
dropping back down into the 60s for highs on Thursday. Low
temperatures are expected to be above freezing through the weekend
into next week for most valleys but northern Elko county could
still see some lows in the upper 20s Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals over the
next 24 hour period. Winds will be light through Friday with
typical diurnal flows at less than 10 knots. A few high level
clouds will be across the area through Friday morning. Cumulus
and a few showers are expected across White Pine county including
at KELY during the day on Friday. However, chance for thunder
remains below 10% so VCTS is not expected at KELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks and rivers across northern and
central Nevada have elevated flows. Dry conditions are expected
the remainder of the week, however temperatures will be trending
warmer which will again help to accelerate the melting of the
remaining mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, but may rise to
minor flood stage in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise tonight, possibly reaching minor flood
stage Friday or Saturday.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain around
8.0 feet (the low end of minor flood stage) over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to reach action stage
late tonight or Friday morning. Additional rises are expected with
the river reaching flood stage late Monday morning.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

$$

90/93/93