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241
FXUS66 KLOX 090255
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
755 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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08/755 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night to morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, with some cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/751 PM.

***UPDATE***

Not much to talk about today. Skies were sunny after some morning
low clouds across the coasts and vlys of LA county. Weak offshore
flow brought about 6 degrees of warming to the Central Coast but
the rest of the area saw little change in the afternoon temps.
Cst/Vly temps today ended up about 4 degrees above normal.

Tonight`s forecast is a tricky one as weak offshore flow will
battle a weak eddy. Current satellite imagery shows low clouds
beginning their march to the north off of the SAN coast. Good
confidence that low clouds will again cover the LA coast and
most of the SGV and SFV Thursday morning. There is a chance (40
percent) that the low clouds will reach the VTA county coast and
about a 30 percent chc that they will xtnd all the to the city of
SBA.

Tomorrow will see some warming across the VTA/LA csts vlys with
the offshore push but cooling across the Central Coast as the
offshore flow will be weaker.

Forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

A very quiet weather pattern for the next week as the storm track
stays well north and east of the area. Offshore flow today ended
up being weaker than anticipated and Santa Ana winds have been on
the lighter side. May see a little pick up in northeast winds
across the mountains and interior valleys later tonight into
Thursday but all winds should be well below advisory levels.

Closer to the coast, a coastal eddy circulation will push clouds a
little farther north tonight, likely reaching the Ventura and SB
Coast overnight. Clouds also expected to push into the coastal
valleys as well. Should stay clear north of Pt Conception tonight
but falling surface pressures to the north later Thursday and
Friday should bring the marine layer back to the Central Coast by
Friday and lingering through the weekend and beyond.

Just minor day to day changes in temperatures for coast and
valleys the next few days. Farther inland a general warming trend
is expected as a weak upper low that has persisted over the Great
Basin finally shifts east.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/157 PM.

Not too much impactful weather conditions going into next week.
Onshore flow to the east is expected to increase steadily through
next week, eventually reaching 9+mb by mid week, which would
result in increasingly gusty west to southwest winds across the
mountains and interior. A weak upper low is expected to slide into
the area around that same time which, in combination with the
increasing onshore flow, would provide a favorable pattern for a
solid marine layer for coast and valleys during the nights and
morning and slower daytime clearing and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0028Z.

At 2330Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2600 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KPMD and KWJF

Good confidence in remainder of TAFs through 08Z then less
confidence. KSBA has a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-18Z, KOXR
and KCMA have a 40 percent chc of IFR cigs 10Z-17Z. Low clouds
could arrive at KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR and KVNY +/- 2 hours from
fcst time and may last 1 hour longer than fcst.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF through 08Z. Low clouds could arrive
any time between 07Z-10Z. Cigs may last til 19Z. There is a 25
percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component 11Z-16Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 09Z. Low clouds could
arrive any time between 10Z-13Z. Cigs may last til 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
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08/753 PM.

There is a 70-800 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions through late tonight for the waters northwest through
southwest of the Channel Islands. Along the Central Coast winds
have dropped below SCA levels but seas remain near or above 10
feet. By early Thursday morning winds and seas will drop below
SCA levels, and then persist through at least Saturday. There is
a 40 percent chance of SCA level winds developing Saturday evening
into Sunday, increasing to a 50-60 percent chance of SCA
conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until midnight PDT tonight
      for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
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&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox