828
FXUS66 KLOX 051213
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
513 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/511 AM.

A cold storm system will continue to exit the region today,
leaving cooler temperatures across the region, isolated to
scattered showers in the mountains, and gusty west to northwest
across portions of the area. Zonal flow aloft will establish
Monday and persist over the region into late week as an upper-
level ridge builds into the eastern Pacific Ocean and an upper-
level trough aloft digs into the Intermountain West and Great
Basin. A warming trend will develop into late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...05/511 AM.

The latest radar mosaic shows light precipitation continuing to
fall over Los Angeles County early this morning as a cold front
moves over the region. Steady precipitation will exit the area
towards dawn, and only isolated to scattered showers will become
confined to the mountains late this morning. Skies should clear
through the day, but a cold day for May is shaping up. There is a
low to moderate chance of record cool high temperatures being set
today, highest at a 40 percent chance for KPMD. The record daily
cold maximum temperatures for KPMD is 61 degrees set on this
calendar day in 1998. While coastal areas will be only about 3-8
degrees below normal for this time of year due to the typically
persistent marine influence in May, the valleys, mountains, and
desert are forecast to be 10-20 degrees below normal for
today. The exception to this will be across southern Santa
Barbara County where KSBA and the Santa Barbara area could be the
warmest spot in the area due to compressional heating taking place
with the northerly winds.

A northwest surface pressure gradient will develop through today
and gusty winds will increase across the area. The gradient
will tighten through this afternoon and evening and increase the
winds across the area. An ample west to northwest push will bring
advisory levels winds to the coastal sections, portions of the
coastal valleys, across the mountains, and down into the Antelope
Valley. Wind advisories remain in effect for much of the
Transverse Range and down into the southern Santa Barbara County
through late tonight. A wind advisory for the remaining coastal
sections and into the Santa Ynez Valley will go into effect at 10
am this morning. The wind advisory for the San Gabriel Mountains
and eastern Antelope Valley foothills was just allowed to expire,
but the advisory for the Antelope Valley and the adjacent western
foothills was extended into this evening. If traveling across the
area, be prepared for gusty cross winds, especially if driving
along Highway 1 and 101, through the San Marcos Pass on Highway
154 and Tejon Pass on Interstate 5, and out across the high desert
on Highway 14. Blowing dust may be a particular hazard at times
west of Highway 14.

Winds will start to diminish on Monday as the gradient relaxes.
Generally, clearing skies are expected tonight through Monday,
but there is a moderate chance of low clouds and fog returning to
the Los Angeles County coastal area and southern Salinas Valley
early Monday morning.

A zonal flow pattern will develop aloft between Monday and
Tuesday as ridging aloft will build into the eastern Pacific Ocean
and an upper-level trough digs into Intermountain West.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...05/502 AM.

A warming trend continues into at least Wednesday and possibly
into late week. Forecast ensemble temperature means climbs
throughout the week, but there is quite a bit of spread across the
solutions with some uncertainties later in the week and next
weekend. The spread becomes much more significant as forecast gets
into Friday through next Sunday. The model solutions are
struggling with how to handle the ridge to the west and the trough
over the West, which could retrograde back as a cutoff low. The
spread gets as large as 20-30 degrees for all locations across the
region. For now, the forecast goes with NBM values.

Gusty northerly winds are likely to persist through the Interstate
5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County during the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0223Z.

At 01Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Light showers will be
possible across the area through tonight, with VFR conditions
expected after around 14Z. Confidence in timing of flight category
changes will be low, and wind speeds may be off by +/- 5 kts
during peak winds. Wind directions may be variable, especially
during wind shifts and periods of wind below 10 kts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce between
BKN025-BKN040, and will likely be BKN050 or higher by around
11Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce between
BKN015-BKN040, until becoming BKN050 or higher by around 10Z-13Z.
Much uncertainty with regards to wind direction as wind shift from
14Z-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/825 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
(with SCA level seas developing Tuesday/Wednesday). There is a 70%
chance of Gale force winds across zones 673/676 and 30% for zone
670 Sunday afternoon through Sunday night then again Tuesday and
Tuesday night. For Thursday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level
winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high
confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas (with the
SCA level seas developing Tuesday/Wednesday). There is a 30%
chance of Gale force winds Sunday afternoon/evening then again
Tuesday/Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high
confidence in SCA level winds (with the strongest winds across
western sections). There is a 60% chance of Gale force winds
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night for western portion of zone 650.
and 30% chance for zone 655. For Monday through Wednesday, there
is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of
the Santa Barbara Channel and a 30% chance of SCA level winds
elsewhere. For Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zones
      87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Gomberg/RAT
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox