Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
038 FXUS63 KLSX 141138 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 638 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early this evening. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall. - Mainly dry conditions are expected during the day Wednesday with a slight moderation in temperatures. Active weather returns late Wednesday night and extends through at least Friday. - Above normal temperatures return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The upper level trough and associated mid-level low will move eastward through the region today with multiple pieces of vorticity rotating around the low. Low level moisture remains in place with surface dewpoints in the low to mid-60s across much of Missouri and Illinois. A weak surface front continues to move southeast through the region this morning with northwesterly flow behind the system pulling in slightly cooler air. As we head into this afternoon, a broad pool of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE builds over the region with pockets slightly above 1000 J/kg. Higher values of 1500-2000 J/kg remain southeast of the CWA ahead of the low center and advancing surface front. CAMs show numerous showers and a few thunderstorms dispersed across the region through the period of diurnal peak heating. Embedded within the broader field of showers is an east-west oriented area that starts out along an north of I-70, where relatively greater coverage is likely driven by mid- level forcing at the northern fringes of the mid-level low. Shear profiles are even weaker than yesterday, lending to less support for organized convection. However, PWATs do remain high with values of 1- 1.5 inches signaling that what thunderstorms do materialize could be efficient rain producers on a localized scale. PMM/LPMM guidance shows small striations of 1.5-2 inch amounts largely running along and east of the Mississippi River, which could lead to ponding in poor draining areas and/or locations saturated by recent rainfall. A few showers could linger over interior sections of Illinois (far eastern CWA) Wednesday as the system slowly exits to the east. Otherwise, an inverted surface ridge that extends southwest from the Great Lakes is sandwiched between the departing system to the east and another system over the Plains. Upper level ridging builds in from the southwest, offering a break between activity with dry weather and a slight moderation in temperatures Wednesday. Maples && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An upper level trough is progged to extend from the northern Plains through the southwestern CONUS by midweek. Multiple shortwaves are present in the broader synoptic pattern with a cutoff low slowly moving west to east over southern California. This pattern continues to hinder the forecast with some uncertainty stemming from the complicated evolution and placement of each feature and their associated boundaries. The area to watch will be across the central Plains, where upper vorticity is kicked northeast ahead of the southwestern upper low. Surface low pressure develops at the lee side of the Rockies and lifts a warm front into the region out of the southwest late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Medium range deterministic guidance shows moisture return with dewpoints in the 60s advancing northward through midweek. LREF mean CAPE values, while not terribly high (1000 J/kg), do indicate that instability moves into sections of southern Missouri by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, the low level jet strengthens over eastern sections of the Plains as MUCAPE values reach 2500-3000 J/kg and shear values between 40-50 knots over southern Missouri. While the finer details, with regard to placement and timing are still in question, trends are favoring Thursday for active weather. Given the deterministic values, there is some indication that stronger thunderstorms could be in the offing once again. How this all plays out will have impact farther down the line in time with placement of the surface features. That said, it does look like the pattern remains active into Friday with a trend toward above normal warmth heading into next weekend. Maples && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A broad area of low pressure will continue to rotate through the region from west to east today. Low level saturation and weak surface flow has given rise to some visibility restrictions and low ceilings. There have been a range of observation with mostly MVFR/IFR around this morning. Showers will become more numerous through late morning into this afternoon and while thunder has not been common this morning, there is the potential for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Localized heavy rain may accompany thunderstorms on occasion with direct impacts resulting in greater visibility reductions than what is currently in the prevailing groups. Given the localized nature of the heavier activity, it is likely to be best handled with later amendments as conditions materialize. Precipitation will gradually fade after sunset, especially as the system pulls off to the east. Low end MVFR/IFR ceiling and visibilities linger around through tonight. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX