877
FXUS64 KLUB 091727
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Seasonably warm and dry through the weekend.

- Daily precipitation chances return beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Seasonably warm conditions continue this weekend, but otherwise no
impactful weather is expected across west Texas. Presently,
Tropical Storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon are located west of
Mexico, while Major Hurricane Isaias (which will not impact west
Texas) is approaching the FL Panhandle, set to make landfall
tonight. Over the course of the weekend, troughing over the
Pacific NW will deepen over the western US and interact with the
tropical systems in the Pacific, and the remnants of Isaias will lift
northward into the mid-MS Valley. In between these two features,
subtle mid-level height rises across west Texas will support a
warming trend, along with continued dry weather.

Highs today are expected to be in the low to mid 80s on the
Caprock, and near 90 off the Caprock, but by Sunday will be in
the mid/upper 80s on the Caprock and low 90s off the Caprock.
Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper
70s. No precipitation is expected through Sunday, but pressure
falls in the lee of the Rockies in advance of the western US
trough will result in increasingly breezy winds through Sunday,
with southerly gusts as high as 30 mph Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Monday is set to be the hottest day of the period as those
aforementioned mid-level height rises continue and peak, with
500mb heights approaching 590 dam. Such values are above the 95th
percentile of climatology for this time of year, and if this
signal persists it may warrant raising temperatures a few degrees
above the current NBM forecast (which has highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s).

A slow-moving, closed upper low will be located over California on
Monday, and as this system slowly shifts east it`ll bring a return
of precipitation chances to west Texas from Tues onward. An
initial look at precipitable water (PWAT) values from the Grand
Ensemble indicates that values will be high (1.3-1.5", which is
around the 95th percentile of climatology). However, moderate
mid- level southwesterly flow, with cloud layer mean wind speeds
around 30 kts, will be strong enough to reduce the heavy rain
concerns outside of any training elements (which are difficult to
resolve at this range). Across the entire Tues-Thurs period, the
probability of exceeding 1" of rainfall is just 20-30% at any
given location across the FA. Current timing suggests precip
chances on Tuesday will be higher on the Caprock compared to off
the Caprock, and by Thursday the inverse will be true.

After Monday, temps will cool over the course of next week,
accentuated by a late week cold front that drops highs back into
the 60s and 70s on Friday. The post-frontal airmass should also
feature breezy northerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period, with mostly clear
skies and light southerly winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...01