451
FXUS64 KLUB 120604
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1204 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

 - Cooler and breezy Friday following a morning cold front.

 - Warm weather Saturday will give way to a quick Arctic blast Sunday,
   with brisk winds and an overcast sky.

 - Temperatures will then warm up Monday and beyond, with no chances
   of precipitation in sight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

After near-record highs at Lubbock on Thursday, cooler temps
remain in stock today following a cold front later this morning.
This front at 10 PM was draped from the Nebraska Panhandle to
central Kansas with a pre-frontal trough sagging south through the
TX South Plains. Mild westerlies at present are set to veer NNW
behind this trough and then become gusty from the NE by mid-to-late
morning with FROPA. Sounding profiles support gusts of 25-30 mph for
a couple hours before drawing lower in the afternoon as surface
ridging deepens. Despite decent CAA and highs 10-15 degrees cooler
than Thursday, highs will fair 10-15 degrees above normal for many
areas under full sun. Similar to FROPAs earlier this week, this
cooling will be short lived as the surface ridge flees the region
Friday night under swift NW flow. Surface winds will veer SSW
overnight which should quell lows from becoming too chilly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

There is high confidence in a short-lived Arctic blast arriving
Sunday across all of W TX. At the beginning of the period, the
mid/upper-levels will feature an intense shortwave trough digging
into the Great Lakes region, with a subtropical ridge centering over
the Great Basin. The CWA will be positioned beneath a bifurcation in
the flow throughout the steering layer, with a lower-amplitude
jetlet translating across the Desert Southwest and into the southern
Great Plains. A shortwave perturbation will translate southeastward
within the belt of northwesterly flow aloft, resulting in lee
cyclogenesis in the higher terrain of northeastern NM. Southwesterly
winds will become breezy in response to the weak pressure falls,
with an expectation for a pre-frontal surface trough to bisect the
CWA during the afternoon hours. Winds were raised slightly from the
NBM to account for the nearby cyclogenesis, and the adiabatic
compression associated with the veering breeze will boost highs into
the lower-middle 70s on the Caprock. Farther east into the Rolling
Plains, winds will remain backed towards the south nearest the
surface trough, which will keep temperatures slightly cooler and in
the middle-upper 60s to lower 70s.

The shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region will undergo a
substantial amplification following the arrival of a well-defined PV
anomaly that will have arced through the apex of the ridge days
prior. This will ultimately increase its concavity as it ejects
eastward into the Appalachian Mountains, and it will allow an
expansive, post-frontal surface high of Arctic origin to rotate
southward into the north-central Great Plains by early Sunday
morning. The Arctic cold front will surge southward across the
entire Great Plains during the day Saturday, and is forecast to
arrive in the far southern TX PH prior to sunset. The timing of the
Arctic cold front is slightly faster than the prior forecasts, which
the NBM has reflected in its recent initialization, and it is being
maintained with this assessment. One of the reasons Arctic cold
fronts such as this move so quickly across the Great Plains (e.g.,
clearing about 10 degrees of latitude in under 24 hours) is that the
Rocky Mountains prevent geostrophy, or geostrophic balance, from
impeding the forward momentum of the shallow airmass.

Temperatures will fall quickly Saturday night, as the CAA post-FROPA
will be reinforced by strong, diabatic cooling, which will have been
aided by the snowpack in the northern Great Plains, at the centroid
of a 1044-1046 mb surface high rotating into the north-central Great
Plains by Sunday morning. The strength of this surface high is about
5 mb short of MSLP records in the Corn Belt (i.e., approximately
1050 mb for December), leading to high confidence in a short-lived
Arctic blast affecting the CWA Sunday. Winds were raised from the
NBM and aligned with the NBM 75th percentile, as pressure rises of
approximately 15 mb/6 hr are forecast during the predawn hours
Sunday. Northeasterly wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across
the CWA, resulting in wind chill values in the lower teens Sunday
morning. Furthermore, moistening of the low-level theta surfaces
should cause the top of the post-frontal airmass to reach its
saturation point, with a thin stratus deck forecast to develop
Sunday morning and last through the afternoon. Sky cover was
increased from the NBM to account for this thinking, and recent
statistical guidance has also captured the low ceilings.

The stratus deck will be far too thin for the heterogeneous growth
of anything beyond the size of cloud droplets, but it will restrict
full insolation occurring until dusk. Therefore, highs were lowered
slightly from the previous assessment, with an 80-percent weight
applied to the NBM 10th percentile, which puts highs into the middle
of the statistical and ensemble envelopes. Highs are forecast to
range from the middle 40s on the Caprock to the middle 30s in the
Rolling Plains, which is between 10 and 20 degrees below seasonal
norms, respectively. The Arctic airmass is forecast to erode
quickly, with highs rebounding into the middle 60s by Monday, as the
high-frequency wave breaking pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean
facilitates a progressive movement to the jet stream. A dry and warm
forecast remains in store for next week, as the subtropical ridge
shifts over the Great Plains while gradually deamplifying into a
quasi-zonal state. Precipitation chances are NIL otherwise.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR with light winds until a FROPA by 15-16Z brings gusty NNE winds
that eventually taper later in the afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93