Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 200538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR conditions to prevail next 24 hours. Light N-NW winds this
morning will swing around to the SW this afternoon and S-SE by


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

Today was definitely much quieter (and nicer) than yesterday as
winds continue to gradually decrease through the day. Winds should
drop to around or less than 10 mph after sunset as a surface ridge
pushes southward over the TX Panhandle. This along with clear skies
will allow temps to drop to below freezing for most areas on the
caprock with temps averaging in the mid 30s across the Rolling
Plains. Tomorrow will be similar to day except with lighter winds as
the surface ridge sticks around into the late afternoon. Wednesday
will start a warming trend as an upper level ridge slowly pushes
eastward across the Rockies gradually increasing thickness heights.
Friday will be the warmest day as thermal ridging settles in and
works with upper ridging and downsloping southwesterly winds to warm
temps into the 90s. Fire weather danger will be highest on Friday as
winds will be out of the southwest around 20 mph with RH values
dropping to around 10 percent. Temps will be a few degrees cooler
Saturday as a shortwave passes to the north helping drop thicknesses
by a couple of dm. By Sunday the GFS and ECMWF are somewhat coming
to an agreement on a backdoor front. The GFS is the fastest with the
fropa occurring late Sunday while the ECMWF waits until Monday
morning/afternoon. The GFS also is more friendly with providing
precip after the fropa. The ECMWF for the most part holds off on
precip until an upper level trough digs eastward by mid next week,
beyond the forecast period. The forecast will continue to be mostly
dry by early next week until better model agreement can be achieved.




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