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000
FXUS64 KLUB 161113
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A stacked low over western Kansas will lift northeastward to eastern
Nebraska by late afternoon and then to southern Minnesota early this
evening. Tight mid level height gradient and associated fast mid
level flow will mix quickly to the surface today with 20-30 mph
winds common mid morning to mid afternoon before surface to mid
level pressure/height gradients relax with decoupling of the
boundary layer with sunset and winds quickly becoming light. Some
modest cold advection across the forecast area will result in
temperatures not quite as warm yesterday with the exception of
eastern areas where cloud cover held temperatures down yesterday
afternoon. Across those areas highs today will end up being warmer
than yesterday. In the end NBM/MOS look fine for temperatures both
today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We are still on par for a strong cold front late Thursday into
Friday. The GFS still shows stronger surface pressure rises behind
the front (10 mb over 6 hours) over the ECMWF (6 mb over 6 hours)
which is resulting in stronger winds. Despite being stronger than
the ECMWF, they are still well below advisory criteria. Temperatures
will be noticably cooler behind the front with Friday`s highs
running about 20F degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs. Isentropic
upglide on Friday will result in widespread cloud cover that will
likely remain through the duration of the cold front (through
Sunday). Rain chances continue to remain in the forecast early
Saturday into early Sunday as an upper shortwave pushes eastward
across the Desert Southwest. This would provide enough upper lift
for widespread showers and possibly just enough lift for a few
isolated thunderstorms. The ECMWF continues to be the most bullish
with QPF amounts. Winds will veer to the south/southeast once again
late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough pushes east of the
region and a surface high sets up over the central CONUS allowing
highs to rise back into the mid/upper 70s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

West winds to increase and become gusty by mid morning and then
diminish with sunset this evening. VFR conditions to continue
through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fast flow just off the surface on the south side of an mid level low
that will move from western Kansas this morning to eastern Nebraska
this afternoon will mix fairly quickly to the surface this morning
while dry air remaining in place will result in relative humidity
falling to 20 percent and below by late morning. The best
combination of stronger winds, lowest humidity, and most receptive
fuels is across the South Plains, i.e., south of the extreme
southern Panhandle and west of the Caprock escarpment. Will issue a
Fire Danger Statement for these areas from mid morning to sunset
when winds will diminish.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07