Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 221716
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1216 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Southerly
winds will back to the southeast overnight before becoming
southerly again late Wednesday morning. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms near PVW and LBB after 00Z, but
confidence was too low to include at this time.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system centered over the Great Basin
will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the next few
days.

This low will keep low level moisture well back into New Mexico,
however, this will also keep flow at mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere weak. Given the position of the upper level low so far
west of the region, we would have to depend on either dryline
convergence or some sort of forcing from a short wave to obtain
strong to severe thunderstorms. Unfortunately, there does not
appear to be much forcing with no discernible short wave in the
model guidance for today and Wednesday. With the moisture backed
up well into New Mexico, there will not be much near surface
convergence either. The best case scenario for the next couple of
days will be thunderstorms initiating off the higher terrain of
eastern New Mexico and moving east into West Texas. However, other
initiation points may depend on remnant outflow boundaries from
early morning convection. There will be modest instability today
with values on the order of 1000 J/kg. These values will increase
on Wednesday to around 1500-2000 J/kg with highest values over the
western South Plains. A theta-e ridge axis will exist in a north-
south orientation centered in eastern New Mexico which is where
the maximum instability will be located. As previously mentioned,
atmospheric flow will be weak which yields deep layer shear
vectors on the order of only 20kt keeping severe chances fairly
low.

Beginning late Wednesday heights/thicknesses will start to rise as
the upper low lifts out onto the Northern Plains. Upper level
ridging will build in this weekend which could lead to northwest
flow storms off of the Raton Mesa for Memorial Day Weekend. One
for sure part of the forecast due to increasing thickness values
will be an increase in temperatures. Some guidance is indicating
temperatures at or exceeding 100 degrees in Lubbock this weekend.
However, if low level moisture were to hang on and/or rain over a
widespread area, these model temperatures may be slightly too
warm.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08



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