Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281920
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
220 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Breezy south winds late this afternoon will remain elevated
overnight resulting in mild overnight lows in the 40s on the
Caprock, upper 40s to low 50s over the Rolling Plains. Mid and upper
level cloud cover gradually increasing tomorrow won`t do much to
keep temperatures from climbing into the 80s area wide, but will
help stem vertical mixing to the surface, mitigating fire weather
concerns somewhat. Southwest winds will peak around 20-25mph west of
a dryline developing along the escarpment. East of the escarpment
and developing dryline over the Rolling Plains will see dewpoints
climb into the 40s with lighter more SSW-S surface flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A more spring like pattern is expected this weekend through early
next week. A broad upper level ridge will spread over the central US
this weekend. Upper level winds will gradually back to the southwest
with an upper low moving on shore into southern California and then
into the southwestern US. A backing and increase of the winds will
occur over the southwestern US into the southern Rockies which will
favor surface troughing/cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies through
Monday. The southwesterly flow will draw in high level moisture over
the area resulting in extensive cloud cover on Saturday and Sunday.
This may act to temper the potential boundary layer mixing as winds
aloft ramp up. However, there may not be much of an effect in the
surface winds with a strong surface cyclone in eastern Colorado each
afternoon. Very warm temperatures will return this weekend despite
the expected cloud cover. Any reduction in heating due to cloud
cover may be made up by the strong downsloping component to the low
level winds. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages on
the order of 10 to 15 degrees above average. On Saturday morning, a
cold front will stall out in the southeastern Texas Panhandle
possibly keeping temperatures a little cooler there. But models have
been slowly backing away from this scenario. On Sunday evening, lift
will begin to spread over the area. There may be some high based
convection off the caprock with the dryline expected to be east or
close to the FA. The lower atmosphere will be fairly dry so any
convection may produce strong wind gusts.

Monday appears to be the most impactful day in the long term
forecast. A sharp short wave trough will eject out from New Mexico
overhead. Monday is expected to be the windiest day with a lack of
cloud cover and the strong wind maximums aloft moving overhead.
There is a chance of thunder in the Rolling Plains on Monday
afternoon but will depend on how far east the dryline will mix.
Current model differences lead to a low confidence forecast in the
placement of the dryline. A cold front will then move through on
Monday evening significantly lowering temperatures for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...55


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