Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

FXUS64 KLUB 162323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

VFR with gusty westerly winds diminishing around sunset. A weak
cold front with light NE winds will arrive after midnight, followed
by thick high clouds lowering to around 10k feet AGL toward


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

Our period of dry and windy weather will persist into early next
week. A mid/upper level low over north central Kansas this
afternoon is causing today`s dry and windy conditions. Sunset and
further movement of the low away from the area will see these
conditions abate this evening. Saturday will see the area between
systems with more quiescent conditions prevailing, although winds
may become a bit breezy during the afternoon near the New Mexico
state line. The next system remains progged to move onto the
southern to central High Plains Sunday afternoon then tracking
across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas during the day Monday.
Majority of the models favoring ramping winds up by mid-afternoon
Sunday, although enough members point to a slower solution that
confidence in timing remains a bit low. The faster solutions point
to the possibility of high wind conditions across the western
third to half of the forecast area, but given the caveat
confidence is not quite high enough to issue a watch at this time.
Winds will should stay up through much of the night then increase
again Monday morning, this time from more of a northwesterly
direction. After this low moves off the Plains things look to
become fairly quiet for a couple of days. Short wave ridging
moving overhead Thursday should lead to warm and breezy
conditions. This will be followed by the next upper trough that
currently is progged to stay open, hopefully keeping winds from
becoming excessive.

Elevated fire weather conditions ongoing should dissipate with
lower wind speeds and higher humidity with or shortly after

Sunday remains the focus as a strong mid to upper level low is
progged to move across the northern Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle/
southwestern Kansas. This will be a favorable latitude to ramp
wind speeds up across the forecast area. The main caveat is that
models are still wrestling a bit with timing with some favoring a
slightly slower solution that would bump the main increase in wind
speed potential into the evening which would result in a lower
potential for fire weather conditions. Will maintain Fire Weather
Watch for Sunday as-is.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.



93 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.