930
FXUS64 KLUB 111605 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1105 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Updated to lower PoPs over the southern South Plains through early
afternoon while also raising high temps in these areas as previous
highs were already being eclipsed in spots. Satellite trends show
the main axis of elevated ascent was bisecting the area from W-E,
roughly along Highway 114, with notable subsidence and some
sunshine to its south. As this lift shifts north and into the
southern TX Panhandle by early afternoon, a new focus for storm
development (largely surface based) is expected to emerge over the
higher terrain of southeast NM and into far western Texas. This
convection may have a harder time sustaining itself farther east
into our cooler airmass later this evening, so am skeptical of
some higher res models depicting these robust surface-based storms
becoming elevated and persisting over the area past sunset. What
seems more likely is for another round of isentropic ascent/elevated
convection to develop this afternoon and primarily affect the
southern half of the CWA. Satellite suggests this next round of
ascent may be tied to a small upper jetlet and banded cirrus
streak evident over the western Permian Basin. No other updates
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Increasing southeasterly surface flow bringing in Gulf moisture
combined with a relatively deep upper trough will lead to widespread
showers across the forecast area today. Precipitation is expected to
begin across the western South Plains early this morning and spread
to the north and east through the remainder of the day. PoPs have
generally remained unchanged from the previous forecast. Total
amounts of around 0.25" to 0.50" are still predicted, with localized
higher amounts possible in thunderstorms, although storm coverage
looks to be scattered at best and no severe weather is expected at
this time. High temperatures have been lowered from the NBM to
closer to deterministic model averages and may struggle to reach
much above 60 in some locations given the persistent rain/cloud
cover. A brief lull in shower activity should occur later this
evening, however overcast and drizzly conditions will continue into
the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper level low will be moving across Colorado early in the day
on Sunday emerging from the Rockies late morning and afternoon.
Precipitation activity is expected to increase after sunrise as
large scale lift increases ahead of this system. Height falls aloft
will increase after sunrise along with the FA being positioned near
the entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Large scale ascent
will peak in the morning with subsidence beginning to swing overhead
in the afternoon. Some timing differences continue to exist in model
solutions on the timing of the lift but areas off the caprock would
be most favored for precipitation through the afternoon and early
evening on Sunday. The ascent created from the upper trough would be
complemented by strong moist isentropic ascent especially in the
morning through early afternoon. At lower levels of the atmosphere,
a surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico moving into West
Texas in the afternoon in response to the approaching upper level
trough. As this occurs, a dryline will develop and mix across the
South Plains in the afternoon. There is a good mix of solutions on
where this dryline will end up settling but dry westerly winds on
the caprock seem likely at this point. Expected showers and
thunderstorms during the morning will complicate the afternoon
forecast for areas off the caprock where greatest chances for storms
will exist. Surface temperatures may stay fairly cool during the
afternoon which would keep the Rolling Plains capped from the
surface. Elevated convection would still be possible and with fairly
strong deep layer shear, could lead to some organized cells.

A cold front will follow Sunday evening into Monday morning as the
upper trough slowly moves across Kansas. Most of the area will
remain in subsident air in the wake of the departing trough but lift
will exist on the back side of the upper low but may mostly remain
north and east of the FA. Short wave ridging aloft will move
overhead on Tuesday resulting in a rapid rise in temperatures but
will move off east of the area on Wednesday as the next upper level
shortwave approaches the region. A subtropical jet will be nosing
into Far West Texas and Permian Basin on Wednesday afternoon greatly
boosting lift overhead. The surface pattern is quite nebulous at the
moment in model data. But return flow will begin as early as Tuesday
ahead of this trough advecting low level moisture into the area.
Analog guidance is highlighting West Texas for severe weather
potential on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Light winds and VFR conditions will persist through mid-morning.
Showers will begin thereafter, beginning at KLBB and KPVW before
moving north and east over KCDS. MVFR CIGs are expected from mid-
afternoon onwards at KLBB and KPVW. Confidence was not high enough
to prevail MVFR at KCDS, however periods of lower CIGs are
certainly possible there as well. Embedded thuderstorms are
possible at all sites, although limited coverage did not merit
their mention in the TAFs. Drizzly MVFR will continue into the
evening, falling to IFR by early Sunday over KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...19