Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 230524
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue. Light mostly east to
northeast winds will become southerly after sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The upper low over the Tennessee River Valley will continue to move
east, keeping us under northwest flow. Surface winds will shift to
the south on Monday helping temperatures rise to the mid to upper
70s. An upper level shortwave will move southeast across the Rockies
early this week pushing a cold front through on Tuesday. Models
continue to come into better agreement for timing of the front with
it pushing south on Tuesday afternoon. Surface pressure gradient
will be fairly tight with winds behind the front bordering advisory
criteria. Moisture is also more limited compared to previous runs
though some thunderstorms will be possible along the front on
Tuesday afternoon. Showers may linger through Wednesday morning in
the Rolling Plains. The next upper level trough over the Northern
Plains will deepen as it approaches the Great Lakes and will push
the next cold front through on Thursday afternoon/evening. Both
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have backed off significantly
for precip with this system so have decreased PoPs for Thursday.
Starting Friday models diverge quite a bit. The GFS has a closed
upper low over northern California with weak ridging over the
South Plains. Surface winds shift to the south bringing up an area
of moisture from the Gulf through the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF
takes the low farther north with a high over the four corners
keeping us dry through the weekend. For now have only included a
slight chance of rain for Friday night through Saturday night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/13



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