Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.AVIATION...

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is moving east from
the New Mexico state line with winds out ahead of the storms
already gusting to 45 kts. Included TEMPO groups at PVW and LBB
for thunder and MVFR ceilings. Showers will linger through
Saturday morning at CDS. Cold front will move south around 18-20Z
with winds shifting to the north and clouds improving to VFR
behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The most impactful part of the forecast will be the next 12 hours as
a strong upper level low over the four corners moves southeast.
Surface winds are sustained 25 to 35 mph this afternoon out ahead of
the low, so a Wind Advisory was issued through 7 pm for the western
South Plains and far southwestern Panhandle. Otherwise, the forecast
remains fairly on track with regard to severe storms this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are firing up along the edge of the
Caprock early this afternoon. High res models have the main line
of storms initiating along the dryline near the NM/TX state line
late this afternoon and slowing moving east. Dewpoints are still
in the upper 30s, though strong southeast winds should continue to
bring moisture northward. A narrow band of instability will be
aligned along the state line combined with plenty of lift for
storms to initiate. While CAPE values are modest, both shear and
STP values are higher which would support some rotating storms.
SPC included this area in the Day 1 Slight Risk. The severe
potential should drop off after sunset as instability decreases.
Will keep the likely PoPs for most of the area through the night.
Rain chances will shift mostly to the Rolling Plains on Saturday
as the low continues to move east.

Upper level flow will shift to the northwest on Sunday and will
help temperatures moderate into the upper 60s on Sunday and 70s
on Monday. Downsloping surface winds will allow highs to reach the
80s on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

A series of upper level lows will move across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes through the week. The first will push a cold
front through the South Plains on Tuesday night. The GFS has a
pretty good area of precip over the Panhandle and South Plains
through Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF has the precip slightly
further east into Oklahoma. For now have PoPs 20-50% for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The next front will approach on Friday.
While models are showing some precip, the bulk of the moisture is
shifted further south.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039-040.

&&

$$

99/99/08


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