Area Forecast Discussion
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239
FXUS64 KLUB 240548
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.AVIATION...
Aviation concerns in the next 24 hrs include widely scattered
thunderstorm activity expected to develop in the vicnity of KLBB
and KPVW around 20 or 21 UTC and then the passage of a strong cold
front around 00 to 05 UTC which will bring gusty N-NE winds and
an increase in -TSRA and SHRA across the area. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with the details, so have kept VFR conditions in the
TAFs for now.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
High temps tomorrow will be a bit tricky as the expected cold
front is forecasted to push through during the early afternoon.
Temps across much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains should
get into the 80s as the front will first push through the
southwestern Texas Panhandle. An upper level ridge will be moving
overhead tomorrow which will help raise temperature ahead of the
front. Another forecast challenge tomorrow is convection. Models
have been particularly favorable with developing convection along
the frontal triple point across the central Rolling Plains. The
trend still continues with most models, however the ECMWF has
backed off with having only a very small area of showers and
thunderstorms across the extreme southern Rolling Plains. For now
the forecast will continue to reflect pops in the higher likely
category. Definite category pops were removed due to the
uncertainty of development and coverage tomorrow afternoon. Storms
that do develop will have the possibility to produce severe hail,
winds, and tornadoes thanks to SB CAPE of around 1000 J/kg and
modest shear associated with the front. Storms that do develop
will quickly push off to the east as the front pushes through the
FA. A second shot of precip is possible behind the front early
Wednesday morning and afternoon as sharp positively tilted trough
digs southward across the central CONUS. Showers should push south
of the region by late Wednesday as northwesterly flow continues
overhead as the trough passes. Models continue to try and develop
convection late Thursday as another trough digs southward across
the central CONUS, but confidence continues not to be high in this
solution. The one of the main reasons for low confidence is lack
of return flow ahead of the precip producing front showing by the
models, especially since the upper flow will continue to be out of
the northwest.

Upper ridging will move in overhead by the start of the weekend
for a relatively uneventful Saturday. Some convection will be
possible along the Rockies in NM, but overall the convection
should stay to our west. These storm chances may push eastward
into the FA by Sunday and Monday as a deep upper trough pushes
southeastward from the Pacific Northwest, but this will depend on
how the low evolves over the next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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