Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 141723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Gusty surface winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon
and evening. High clouds at or above 20K feet will prevail with
VFR conditions next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

Fire weather concerns will manifest itself again for the rest of
this week into the weekend.

An expansive surface ridge will begin to relinquish control of the
region today with surface lee troughing developing west of the area.
An upper level ridge overhead will keep mostly southerly winds today
but warmer temperatures closer to or above seasonal averages.
Surface dew point will be on the increase today under the low level
return flow, however, this increase will be stunted a bit off the
caprock. Relative humidity values may drop to around 15 percent off
the caprock today but winds will likely remain well shy of critical
fire weather conditions.

An upper level ridge will mover east of the area on Thursday with a
short wave moving across the four corners by the afternoon. This
will bring a greater threat for critical fire weather conditions.
This pattern will draw up abundant amounts of low level moisture in
the morning especially for areas off the caprock. However, deep
mixing by the afternoon especially on the caprock will dry out the
low levels of the atmosphere. Winds aloft will be increasing through
the day so it will not be the best timing for maximum wind
potential. Nonetheless, this wind max will exist from east-central
New Mexico through the northwestern Texas Panhandle. This will also
be layered on top of a low level thermal ridge. Complicating all of
this will be the presence of mid level moisture moving overhead.
This may act to prevent such deep mixing and less surface winds as a
result. Furthermore, a non-negligible amount of lift coupled with
this moisture may create isolated/dry thunderstorms or virga bombs.

Friday will see the fire weather potential continue but winds are
anticipated to be much less. However, relative humidity values will
drastically drop with temperatures around 15-20 degrees above
seasonal averages. Upper level winds will become more zonal allowing
for a dry line to mix well to the east. Strong subsidence in the
wake of the dryline will bring some extremely dry air down to the

Increasing uncertainty now exists for a weak front on Saturday. The
ECMWF is holding to its guns in depicting this weak front while the
GFS holds it up in the Texas Panhandle. The closer this front ends
up to the area will result in lighter winds and less fire weather
concerns. Also noteworthy will be a weak short wave aloft but
moisture levels will likely be too low to see any measurable
precipitation for the southern Rolling Plains. If this wasn`t
enough, another strong short wave will eject out of the Rockies on
Sunday. More considerable uncertainty exists with this short wave
with the GFS depicting a more dampened trough and less winds than
the ECMWF. Above seasonal average temperatures will continue for the
foreseeable future.


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039-040.



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