Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 150519
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.AVIATION...
Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 855 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to reflect the expiration of the Red
Flag Warning. No other adjustments were made attm, with a light
freeze still possible for much of the area early Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 702 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

UPDATE...
Winds have been trending slowly downward and most locations are
now below advisory levels. Although a few spots could stray above
30 mph for the next hour or so, the overall trend is clear and we
have allowed the wind advisory to expire at 7 pm. As winds really
diminish the Red Flag Warning will fall soon after, in the next
1-2 hours. The cool airmass and forthcoming light winds and clear
skies will yield a chilly night, and the freeze warning for much
of the CWA remains valid early Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
In the wake of an occluding cyclone over Kansas City, strong NW
winds were slowly pulling away from the South Plains. This trend
has been consistent enough to justify canceling the western
portion of the Wind Advisory where speeds have remained below 30
mph. As dry and cool surface ridging builds south into the region
overnight, decoupling of winds should ensure a widespread light
freeze for all of the area. Barring our far NW counties, all areas
have surpassed their average last freeze dates, hence a Freeze
Warning has been issued from 1 AM through 9 AM Sunday.

The surface high will make a slow exodus from the region by
Sunday afternoon, before increasingly breezy and milder conditions
arrive on Monday under an upper ridge. Lee troughing to our west
by this time will escalate into lee cyclogenesis across southeast
CO by Tuesday as a trough lifts across the CO Plateau. Southwest
winds for Tuesday were boosted into Wind Advisory levels for most
areas given 50-65 knots of 700mb flow and deep mixing potential
within dry slotting. Following this trough`s passage Tuesday
night, a Canadian front will likely dive well through most of Texas
before a steady return of Gulf moisture ensues through late week.
Although the quality of moisture return is almost always a
concern in these parts, sustained SSE winds ahead of a slow moving
cyclone in the Four Corners should ensure decent rain probabilities
for much of the region by Friday and Friday night, with some
conditional opportunities as early as Thursday. Pattern by Friday
does hold potential for a regional severe weather event as strong
forcing impinges on an axis of improving PWATs. This theme is
reflected well in the extended outlooks from SPC.

FIRE WEATHER...
Despite cool temperatures, strong and dry NW winds continue to
support elevated to critical fire weather conditions, primarily
northeast of the Highway 84 corridor where winds of 20+ mph are
most consistent. Following a widespread freeze tonight and light
winds for Sunday, milder and breezier SW winds by Monday with
strong winds for Tuesday should foster more wildfire growth
potential.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ023>026-
028>044.

&&

$$

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