Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 191726
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Southeasterly
winds will increase this afternoon and stay up overnight. This
should prevent the need for LLWS as a low level jet develops
overnight. Hi-res models are showing showers approaching towards
the end of the period, but confidence was not high enough to
include yet.

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline convection and severe chances will be the main concern
involving this forecast package.

An upper level low currently digging into the southwestern US will
begin to track along the 37th parallel later today. Strong
southeasterly winds today will allow moisture to return well into
New Mexico. Convection is expected to initiate roughly around the El
Paso longitude but will struggle to make it into West Texas given
continued very dry low levels. Strong lift from the aforementioned
upper low will spread overhead on Friday and Friday night.
Convection is likely but severe convection is a little more in
doubt. A substantial amount of upper level divergence will move
overhead in association with a strong upper level jet streak around
the base of the trough. A low level theta-e axis that will develop
well into New Mexico today will shift into West Texas on Friday.
This narrow axis will extend from the Big Bend region into the
western Texas Panhandle. Progged instability is not that great
within this moist axis with values on the order of less than 500
J/kg. However, there will be a large amount of shear at both low
levels and deep layers. Furthermore, analog guidance continues to
indicate potential for severe convection from the Permian Basin into
the southwestern South Plains.

The slow movement of this system will keep lift in the area on
Saturday along with an impinging cold front. This upper level system
will finally depart on Saturday evening shutting down precipitation
with short wave ridging through early next week. Another cold front
around Tuesday could enhance precipitation chances again. However,
there are still significant differences in the GFS and ECMWF which
gives low confidence in the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will occur for areas on the caprock
this afternoon. Strong winds will be out of the southeast but
moisture levels will still be poor. Forecast RFTI values will range
from 1 to 2 on the caprock. Although temperatures will be below
seasonal averages today, forecast ERC values greater than the 90th
percentile warrant the issuance of a rangeland fire danger
statement.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08



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