000
FXUS64 KLUB 240551
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The cold front has pushed into the FA, with the front stretching
from Friona to Tulia to Estelline as of 18Z. The dryline, also at
18Z, is stretching from Denver City to Lubbock to Plainview. The
front is expected to continue pushing southward through the
afternoon while the dryline continues to push eastward. Isolated
convection is still on track to develop around the triple point by
the late afternoon across the southern Rolling Plains where high
dewpoints and daytime heating allow the current low level cap to be
overcome. There is more than enough CAPE (upwards of 1500 J/kg) and
drier air aloft to allow for large hail over 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts up to 70 mph with the strongest storms. Hi-res models
continue to indicate one main supercell late this afternoon/early
evening that tracks across our far southeastern counties and exits
to the southeast of the FA by sunset. The cold front will slow
and stall along to possibly just south of the FA tonight as the
upper ridge settles overhead and will keep winds out of the east.
The overall front is not strong and will only cool temps a couple
degrees tonight over this morning`s lows. Temps will be cooler
tomorrow, however, as low stratus develops tomorrow morning. The
coverage and extent of the status is still uncertain as some
areas, mostly our southern zones, will still see sunshine and
warmer temps as a result. It will be possible to see temps ranging
from the upper 60s to the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Some
drizzle/light rain will also be possible tomorrow afternoon across
areas that have stratus cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The pattern through the end of April remains an unsettled one
overall for West Texas thanks to a parade of troughs in southwest
flow. Wednesday evening opens with an upper ridge squarely atop the
South Plains and a frontal boundary draped W-E near or just south of
our southernmost counties. Despite the underwhelming background
support for deep convection, the presence of enhanced moisture
convergence along this front and particularly its intersection with
a dryline near Highway 87 should bolster odds for storm development
through the evening hours, particularly given modest CIN nearest the
dryline. Opted to expand NBM`s slight chance PoPs Wednesday evening
southwest through Garza and Crosby Counties to give more credence
to various CAMs. Convection should trend increasingly elevated
overnight as WAA escalates and the surface front retreats northward.
These patterns underneath or just downstream of an upper ridge
tend to favor nocturnal storms following the H7 thermal gradient
which in this case shifts beyond our area and into the eastern TX
Panhandle and southwest OK after midnight, so precip chances
should wane after midnight.

Thursday morning`s upper ridge will quickly shift east ahead of an
upper low lifting northeast and over the Four Corners by the
afternoon. As richer Gulf moisture streams north, the dryline will
sharpen considerably and likely stall over the middle of the CWA,
perhaps farther west given the still-distant upper trough. Given
most/all of our area will reside south of the upper jet during the
daytime, it appears a sizable EML will hold until the sharpest
height falls and mid-level cooling arrive after sunset complete
with a Pacific cold front. Opted to leave a low chance mention of
afternoon PoPs across our northeast zones where stronger dryline
convergence could offset the cap before a greater coverage of
storms unfolds after sunset. On the heels of this negatively-
tilted trough, Friday remains dry and windy before the next potent
upper trough gears up to our west complete with another bout of
dryline storms for Saturday. Models are in good accord with
Saturday`s dryline and attendant threat for severe storms staying
in the Rolling Plains given a faster upper trough progression.
Post-dryline winds could reach 30+ mph on Saturday given a more
favorable window of deep mixing into stronger winds aloft. Sunday
remains quiet, dry and breezy ahead of a weak cold front and
northerly wind shift Sunday night. This boundary probably won`t
have much impact on Monday`s temps and should wash out under
zonal flow before southwest flow reloads on Tuesday. This pattern
will spur a return of moist southerlies in the low levels along
with the potential for more dryline storms by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A low stratus deck will begin to develop early this morning,
most likely at CDS and PVW with a small chance for development as
far south as LBB. Mostly MVFR to IFR conditions will persist
through the morning hours, but there remains a chance for LIFR
conditions at CDS. Confidence was too low for IFR conditions as
far south as PVW, so no mention was given at this issuance. Amendments
will be made where necessary as the low clouds unfold through the
early morning hours. Tomorrow afternoon through late evening,
there is a slight chance for thunderstorm development anywhere
along and east of the I-27 corridor. Exact location of storm
initiation remains uncertain and therefore no mention in the TAF
was given at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11