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000
FXUS61 KLWX 241910
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area this afternoon bringing with
it breezy conditions and a few spotty showers. High pressure returns
Thursday and Friday. A warm front lifts into the area this
weekend bringing a significant warm up early next week. Next
chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a cold front
Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A prominent mid-level shortwave is evident on water vapor
imagery over New Jersey this afternoon. As large scale descent
has increased in its wake, earlier showers and thunderstorms
across northeast Maryland have dissipated. Dry conditions are
expected across the forecast area through the remainder of the
afternoon. Fair weather cumulus remain within northwesterly
low-level flow. Winds will continue to gust to around 20-30 mph
out of the northwest, and temperatures will reach highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for most (50s mountains).

Winds turn northerly tonight as high pressure builds over the
Great Lakes. Cold advection will continue in northerly flow,
with temperatures dropping back into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build to our north tomorrow into
Friday. As the high slowly shifts eastward, winds will turn from
northeasterly tomorrow morning, to easterly tomorrow afternoon,
and then southeasterly on Friday. No precipitation is expected
through the daylight hours Friday. In general, a mix of sun and
clouds is forecast, with cloudier skies further south and west,
and more sunshine further north and east. High temperatures
both days will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows
generally in the 40s. The next chance for showers will come
Friday night as warm advection ensues aloft ahead of a system
over the center of the country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A tale of two seasons this weekend as a warm front lifts through the
region. Feeling like Summer Sunday through Tuesday with the next
widespread chance of rain arriving midweek.

Surface high pressure will continue to nudge south and east off the
southern New England coast into the western Atlantic for the start
of the weekend. Meanwhile, at the surface a warm front will lift
north along the western periphery of the surface high and push
toward the eastern Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This front may
lend to a few showers mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge
although it should remain relatively moisture starved with upper
level ridging quickly building in from the southeastern U.S. High
temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s and low 60s
north of I-66/US-50 with mid to upper 60s further south. This spread
is due largely in part to the placement of the boundary and eroding
wedge/easterly component mainly east of the Blue Ridge.

A true tease to Summer arrives Sunday-Tuesday of next week as strong
upper level ridging off builds over the mId-Atlantic region. With
strong surface high pressure off the NC coast an ample supply of
warm air advection will surge our way boosting temperatures into the
upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and potentially pushing toward 90
degrees in some locations early next week. These temperatures will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late April standards. Overnight
lows will fall into the 50s and 60s.

The ridge begins to buckle Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches
from the Ohio River Valley. The front will bring renewed chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. With that
said, severe weather could become a possibility given the well above
normal temperatures and modest dynamics Tuesday afternoon and
evening as the front passes. CIPS analogues and the CSU Learning
Machine probabilities continue to highlight this potential 7 days
out especially in areas east of I-81. We`ll continue to monitor this
threat and see how it evolves over the coming days ahead.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Gusts out of the
northwest up to 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds
turn northerly and then northeasterly tonight. Winds start out
northeasterly tomorrow, then turn easterly tomorrow afternoon.
Winds on Friday will be out of the southeast.

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Thursday and Friday
with high pressure overhead. East to southeast winds will gusts
between 10 to 15 kts Thursday and Friday.

A warm front lifts into the area Saturday providing a few spotty
showers to terminals west of the corridor. Outside of the showers
expect extra mid and high level clouds from time to time with
southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 kts. Less cloud cover is expected
Sunday and Monday as ridging strengthens. Winds will remain elevated
out of the south and southwest with gusts 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect this afternoon in northwesterly flow.
Winds turn northerly tonight, and SCAs remain in effect through
the night. Sub-SCA northeast and then easterly winds are
expected tomorrow. Sub-SCA southeasterly winds are expected on
Friday.

Winds could flirt with SCA criteria for a few hours on both Saturday
and Sunday. A warm front will lift across the waters Saturday
changing the winds toward more of a southerly direction. With
surface high pressure off the Carolina coast expected, southerly
winds Saturday to change to more of a southeasterly direction
Sunday. Gusts of 15-18kts are expected Saturday with 20-25 kts gusts
possible Sunday due to southerly channeling. Sub-SCA level winds
return Monday before SCA level winds return ahead of a strong cold
front Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds turn out of the northwest behind a cold front and will be
stronger, sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and
possibly higher along the ridges. RHs could drop into the upper
20s and low 30s this afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northwesterly winds are causing tidal anomalies to drop rapidly
today. As a result, no coastal flooding is expected over the
next day, with only Action stage possible at the most sensitive
sites. Winds turn easterly tomorrow, and then southeasterly on
Friday. This may cause water levels to increase again, making
coastal flooding possible by Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530-531-
     538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532-
     533-536-540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534-
     537-542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KJP/EST
MARINE...KJP/EST
FIRE WEATHER...CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP