Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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947 FXUS61 KLWX 190801 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area later this morning. High pressure will build on Friday and remain in control through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cdfnt is currently crossing the area early this morning and will push east of the Chesapeake Bay by 8AM today. Sct showers will continue through about midday east of the mtns while in the mtns rain showers turn into snow snow showers by late morning. While showers will end by early afternoon east of the mtns, cloud cover will persist through much of the day and inhibit mixing potential somewhat. It will become windy later today especially across far northern VA and central MD, but it appears most gusts should stay below 40 kt likely in the 32-38 kt range. Clearing and turning colder tonight and still breezy with freezing temperatures likely west of the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build over the region into the weekend with dry conditions. Breezy and cool with highs in the 50s. Another night of freezing temperatures is likely with more freeze watches/warnings likely. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region on Sunday will make an east southeastward shift off the Mid Atlantic coastline through Monday evening. During this period, expect dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 60s, while lows will generally fall in to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees area wide. A dry and pleasant start to the work week is on tap Monday as high pressure remains in control, providing mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. A cutoff upper level low will reside over the southeastern U.S. early next week, with a wide swath of precipitation likely in that region as a result. Progression of this feature and its associated surface low diverges between global guidance this morning. GFS maintains a more progressive system moving northeastward and bringing the threat for precipitation, at least to the southern portions of the CWA late Monday night and into Tuesday. The ECMWF maintains a ridge of high pressure over much of the Mid Atlantic into early Wednesday, before the western Atlantic high retreats eastward. GEFS carry a similar solution to the ECMWF output, so at this time, will carry middle of the road precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday until timing differences can be fine tuned in the follow days. Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected during this time period with the potential unsettled pattern and increased cloud cover. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Bkn-ovc cigs 035-050 today. Main impact will be NW winds gusting around 35kt diminishing somewhat tonight. Gusts to 25kt expected Fri. Winds below 10kt Sat with no weather. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals Sunday through Monday as a ridge of high pressure dominates our weather features with light winds less than 10 knots. && .MARINE... Gale warning in effect today into early this evening, then SCA overnight and all day Fri. Winds diminish below 10 kt Sat. Sub SCA conditions forecast Sunday through Monday as a ridge of high pressure will keep winds light over the waters. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for MDZ003>006-503>507. VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ503-504-507- 508. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ025>031-036>040-050>053-055-056-501-502-505>508. WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ501-503-505- 506. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for WVZ051>053. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-537- 539>541. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-536-538- 542. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...BKF/LFR MARINE...BKF/LFR/JMG

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