083
FXUS61 KLWX 281407
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1007 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures for late April are expected today through
Tuesday as high pressure sits off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Shower and
thunderstorms chances return Tuesday afternoon and again
Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. High pressure
briefly returns Thursday before another front arrives late week
and into the weekend with additional afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dense Fog Advisories have been allowed to expire as visibilities
continue to improve this morning and into midday. The weak upper
level disturbance from earlier this morning continues to push east
while strong upper level ridging/high pressure over the coastal
Carolinas takes hold across the area today. With building heights
and an ample supply of south to southwesterly flow, temperatures
should rise fairly quickly heading into the afternoon hours.
Highs today will push into the low to mid 80s in many locations
with 70s over the mountains. Conditions will remain dry with
sunny to mostly sunny skies even in areas that are seeing low
clouds and fog this morning. A stray shower cannot be ruled out
over the Potomac/Allegheny Highlands, but will be fairly short
lived given limited shear aloft and overall forcing as the ridge
builds overhead.

Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with areas
of patchy dense fog in particular over the river valleys along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Expect a mild night with lows in the
upper 50s and low to mid 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-level high over the Carolinas moves northeast to start the
week, bringing us dry conditions and the hottest temps of the week.
Afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s possible
along parts of the I-95 corridor into Central VA. Very mild Monday
night as lows only drop to the low to mid 60s.

The ridge aloft moves east of the area Tuesday as an upper trough
and associated cold front cross the area. Well above normal warmth
likely once again, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
the cold front Tuesday afternoon through late evening. A few storms
could be strong, through the chance for more active/severe storms
looks to be low given dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s and
weak deep-layer shear at 30kt or less. Still, storms that do develop
are going to be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and
strong gusty winds. Shower/storm activity moves east of the area
late in the evening, with some lingering showers through part of the
overnight. Not much temp relief as overnight lows settle in the
upper 50s to 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity could continue into
Wednesday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Instability
and shear remain limited, but a few storms could be strong.

With the passage of the front, high temperatures could drop a few
degrees into the upper 70s and low 80s, but the heat likely
continues for the end of the week.

Brief high pressure over the Northeast should suppress convection on
Thursday, but a few showers could develop west of the Blue Ridge.

An area of pressure is currently progged to move from the Midwest
into Great Lakes Friday/Saturday. The associated cold front looks to
be the main driver for the area`s next chance for widespread showers
over the weekend as it approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pockets of IFR and LIFR continue to reside at KIAD, KRMB, KJYO,
KOKV, KHGR, and KHEF this morning due in part to low clouds and
dense fog. The fog and low clouds have since eroded elsewhere
across the corridor and at terminals back toward the west where
VFR conditions prevail. Low cigs have also been noted at BWI,
DCA, and MTN, but even here quick improvement has been noted.
Expect full improvement across the terminals between
15-16z/11am-12pm.

VFR and dry conditions expected this afternoon through Monday night,
with southwest to west winds at 5-10 knots. A cold front sweeps
through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts over 35 knots and lightning strikes, as well as
brief periods of reduced visibility. Convection moves east of the
area late Tuesday evening.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday, isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms could bring sub-VFR conditions to
the terminals. Northwest winds on Wednesday become southeasterly
Thursday as a front returns north.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to south winds continue to diminish this morning,
though a few lingering gusts to 15-18 knots are possible through
mid morning in the central Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound.
After that, favorable marine conditions are expected through
Monday night as high pressure brings dry and much warmer
conditions.

A cold front is forecast to cross the local waters Tuesday afternoon
and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. These
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots or
greater and lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed
as these storms cross the waters. Showers/storms push east of the
area late Tuesday night as winds turn northwest behind the
front.

Northwest winds on Wednesday become southeasterly Thursday as a
front returns north. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
could bring stronger gusts to the waters, especially on
Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies continue to be on the decrease at this time, so no
further tidal flooding is expected over the next several high tide
cycles for most areas. A few locations could perhaps be close to
Minor during the Sunday morning high tide, but have been trending
down.

Tidal anomalies could increase slightly with persistent southwest
flow early this week but no flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record to record warmth is possible on Monday afternoon.
Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and
the year the record was set.

                                       Apr 29th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     91F (2017+)     91F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       89F (2017)      89F
Baltimore (BWI)               91F (1951)      89F
Martinsburg (MRB)             93F (1974)      86F
Charlottesville (CHO)*        92F (1974)      89F
Hagerstown (HGR)*             90F (1974)      86F
Annapolis (NAK)*              92F (1974)      83F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted
  year is the most recent
* denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...CAS/KRR
MARINE...CAS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR
CLIMATE...KRR