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000
FXUS61 KLWX 240051
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
851 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through late tonight through Wednesday. High
pressure builds in again Thursday into Friday. A warm front
moves through over the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight. Southerly flow
and increasing clouds ahead of this front will keep low temps
well into the upper 40s to low 50s. A few showers are possible
with the frontal passage, mainly prior to sunrise Wednesday
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers continue over the Alleghenies through Wednesday morning
with upslope flow, and more showers develop along central
Maryland and along the Chesapeake Bay as the front advances
eastward. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out in the
afternoon. Showers exit by the evening. Patchy frost could
develop Wednesday night depending on how much clearing occurs
behind the cold front, but we`ll continue to evaluate.

Dry conditions return Thursday with high pressure building into
the region.

Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the cold
frontal passage as temps drop behind it, but could see above normal
temps in the low 70s east of the Blue Ridge before the front
passes in the afternoon. Thursday will be cooler with highs in
50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will start out dry as upper level ridging
shifts over the area throughout the day on Friday. At the surface,
high pressure shifts southeast over the Atlantic throughout the
period. High temperatures on Friday will get into the 60s for
most with highest ridgetops staying in the 50s. Overnight lows
will dip into the 40s areawide. Starting Friday night into
Saturday, precipitation chances increase west of the Blue Ridge
as a low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes region. Dry
air aloft will keep rain chances less than 50% with conditions
drying out overnight Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered
rain showers cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon as a frontal
system approaches the area.

As upper level ridging builds overhead and return flow ushers in
warm air, temperatures noticeably warm on Sunday. High temperatures
on will be in the mid 70s to 80s for most with higher elevations
staying in the upper 60s. For Monday, high temperatures rise into
the upper 70s to 80s areawide. Overnight low temperatures will be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s both nights.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
isolated to scattered showers could bring brief reductions
tonight into Wednesday. Have introduced some showers into the
TAFs early in the morning given recent trends in guidance.

Winds will diminish this evening, however, a decent LLJ
develops around NE MD overnight. Keeping LLWS in the BWI and
MTN TAFs as a result.

Winds pick up out of the northwest on Wednesday with gusts
around 20-25 kt possible. Northeasterly flow and dry conditions
arrive Thursday.

VFR conditions are expected Friday at all terminals with high
pressure overhead. On Saturday, a frontal system passing to our west
will bring low end rain chances to MRB with the rest of the
terminals staying dry. Southeast winds on Friday shift to southerly
on Sunday, blowing around 10 knots and gusting 15-20 knots each
afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through
Wednesday morning. After that, winds may experience a bit of a
lull in the afternoon. Winds pick up again as they turn
northerly and channel down the Chesapeake Bay.

SCA criteria winds could continue into Wednesday afternoon.
Winds over the waters diminish and turn out of the northeast on
Thursday.

Southeast winds on Friday shift to southerly on Saturday with dry
conditions expected over the waters both days. Winds will be right
below SCA criteria on Friday before diminishing overnight into
Saturday morning. Winds pick up again on Saturday and will likely
reach SCA criteria in the afternoon.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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RHs recover tonight to 60-70% with some reduction in winds.
Winds turn out of the northwest behind a cold front and will be
stronger, sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and
possibly higher along the ridges. RHs could drop into the upper
20s and low 30s on Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to monitor
conditions going into Wednesday, especially with regards to any
rainfall that may occur tonight.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies continue to increase under southerly flow. Minor
coastal flooding is expected for Annapolis for Wednesday morning`s
high tide, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued. Minor
flooding is also possible at Straits Point and Havre De Grace.
Otherwise only Action stage is anticipated for the remaining
tidal sites. Winds turn out of the northwest on Wednesday
resulting in lowering tidal anomalies.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/CAS
MARINE...AVS/CJL/CAS
FIRE WEATHER...CAS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS