887
FXUS64 KLZK 301708 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1208 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Recent night fog sat imgry depicted developing fog acrs much of the
FA, w/ sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-South. Thru the
remaining overnight hrs and towards sunrise, expect areas of fog to
persist around the region, w/ locally dense fog (VISBY`s less than 1
mile). Foggy condns should improve after sunrise w/ the onset of
diurnal heating/mixing.

Thru the day today, expect settled condns acrs the FA, w/ winds bcmg
more Srly by the aftn hrs as broad sfc cyclonic flow develops acrs
the Cntrl Plains. Strong WAA wl start to yield above normal temps
around the region, w/ fcst high temps in the mid to upper 80s the
next few days.

Rain chances wl return to the fcst on Wed as WAA continues across
the region, w/ higher Chc PoPs mainly focused acrs portions of Wrn
AR, including some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)

Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
An unsettled weather pattern will return by the second half of the
week here in Arkansas as a fairly significant complex of
thunderstorms will likely be moving into the region from east TX and
OK. SW Arkansas will be at the highest risk for any heavier rain and
flash flood potential considering we are now well above
climatological norms triggering lower flash flood guidance. Will
need to keep a close watch on the progression out of NE Texas over
the next few days as this area of concern could shift into LA.

In the meantime a cold front will drop in from the north providing
another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across the state
heading into the end of the week. The threat for heavy rain is
somewhat less aggressive but will need to monitor streamflow and
recent rainfall observations for any high runoff and flood prone
areas.

Temperatures will be mild through the period with lows in the
50s/60s and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. These will fluctuate day
to day due to rainfall chances and the presence of enhanced sky
cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions remain likely through the period. Afternoon CU is
expected to become widespread, around 3.5-4k ft through sunset.
Winds will be below 10 kts, out of the S with varying direction at
times. Low chances for FG development overnight. TS chances remain
unlikely across area terminals, but activity may move into NW
parts of the state closer to 01/12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  86  64  80 /   0  10  10  70
Camden AR         60  87  65  78 /   0  20  20  70
Harrison AR       60  84  64  77 /  10  10  10  80
Hot Springs AR    61  87  65  77 /   0  20  20  80
Little Rock   AR  64  88  67  80 /   0  10  10  70
Monticello AR     63  88  67  81 /   0  10  10  50
Mount Ida AR      61  86  66  77 /   0  20  30  90
Mountain Home AR  60  86  64  80 /  10  10  10  70
Newport AR        61  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  60
Pine Bluff AR     62  87  65  80 /   0  10  10  60
Russellville AR   61  87  65  79 /   0  10  20  80
Searcy AR         60  86  63  81 /   0  10  10  60
Stuttgart AR      63  86  66  82 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...67