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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241724
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A weak frontal bndry was aligned acrs north AR early this mrng, with
a few light showers noted along it. Predawn temps were in the 50s to
the north of the front, with 60s noted elsewhere. Seeing locally
dense fog form over the far north, mainly in the vcnty of the area
lakes and rivers.

Model solutions this mrng are in overall good agreement, taking
the fnt into southwest AR later today and tngt before stalling
out. Rain chcs today wl be confined mainly to locations along and
south of the front, albeit mainly in the 20-30% range.

The aforementioned front wl eventually return to the north as a warm
fnt Thu into Thu night in response to a deepening low pres system
over the eastern Rockies. Convection wl incrs in coverage Thu as a
weak upper SWT apchs fm the west. The highest rain chcs (60-80%) wl
be focused along and north of the warm fnt. Cannot rule out a few
strong storms, but the main concern wl be the potential for heavy
rainfall and possibly some localized flooding.

The bndry is expected to lift north of AR Thu ngt, with warm and
humid conds returning to the FA. The focus for any lingering
convection wl be acrs parts of north and western AR by early Fri
mrng. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont beyond this fcst period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will overshadow the entire period of
Friday through Tuesday. In the upper lvls, a series of closed lows
and SWTs will approach the region. In tandem at the sfc, a series of
low pressure systems will remain in the Central Plains region of the
CONUS with their attendant southward extending cold front and
dryline in cohesion with a warm front that will lift through the
region and allow for a large warm sector to open up across the
Southern Plains into the Mid-South regions of the CONUS. At the
current time, a slight risk of severe weather will be possible
across portions of Arkansas on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as all
modes of severe weather will be possible. Expect several rounds of
rain and thunderstorms across the CWA through Monday when the trof
axis finally pushes over the Mid-South region of the CONUS and the
sfc cold front finally moves across the state of Arkansas and in the
wake of the cold front a sfc high pressure will move into the region
of the Ohio River Valley of the CONUS by Tuesday bringing an end to
the unsettled period of weather across Arkansas and the CWA.

A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of
excessive rainfall over the period of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state
and CWA. The threat itself needs to be treated in the same capacity
of the threat of the traditional all modes of severe weather
associated with a few tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and large hail.

Details will continue to become more clear in the next 12 to 24
hours. However, confidence continues to build that severe weather
will be likely across portions of the state and CWA on Friday and
Saturday with more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms
possible on Sunday along with the threat of flash flooding,
especially in locations vulnerable to flooding.

Temperatures over this period will be slightly above normal with
respect to both low and high temperatures over this period compared
to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

CIGs persist across portions of northern and southern Arkansas.
CIGs will gradually fill in and lower through the evening hours as
some rain chances (possibly TSRA) become possible by tomorrow.
Coverage of showers are not confident, therefore VCSH/VCTS have
been written in for many terminals. This unsettled weather pattern
will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  64  61  79 /  50  80  20  50
Camden AR         61  80  65  81 /  20  20   0  30
Harrison AR       53  62  58  73 /  70  80  40  90
Hot Springs AR    58  72  65  79 /  50  60  10  60
Little Rock   AR  59  72  65  81 /  50  70  10  40
Monticello AR     61  79  67  81 /  20  30   0  10
Mount Ida AR      58  73  65  77 /  60  60  10  80
Mountain Home AR  53  62  58  74 /  50  80  40  80
Newport AR        55  66  61  80 /  30  70  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     59  75  65  80 /  40  50   0  30
Russellville AR   56  67  62  76 /  60  70  20  70
Searcy AR         54  67  61  79 /  50  80  10  40
Stuttgart AR      59  70  66  79 /  40  60   0  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73