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168
FXUS64 KLZK 041715 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Currently, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the region.
Cloud cover was a mixture of low stratus (mainly over the Ern half
of AR) to high clouds (mainly over the Wrn half of AR). The radar
was quiet locally however convective activity was noted over the
Plains. Patchy fog had developed over portions of state but
nothing concentrated enough to warrant a fog advisory at this
time. Temperatures were starting out in the 60s with calm or light
winds.

Today, the aforementioned convection will move across the state
beneath a weak upper level disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see
rainfall at their particular location. The best PoP chances will
be over NW AR into N-Cntrl AR, including portions of Cntrl, SE,
and Ern AR. Organized strong to severe thunderstorms seem
unlikely, however strong winds or marginally severe hail could be
possible. Highs today should top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Dew points will be in the lower to mid 60s. Tonight, rain chances
will decrease with lows falling into the 60s.

On Sunday, a much stronger upper level impulse will move through
background SWrly flow. This will spark off a new round of showers
and thunderstorms. Convection should then track from SW to NE across
the state through the daytime. For now, the threat for severe
weather appears low. PoP chances are higher with the Sunday system
as confidence is much higher in widespread QPF vs Saturday. By
Sunday night, PoPs will decrease from the SW as the upper system
moves into the OH Valley. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. High
temperatures should climb into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The extended period will start off with a large storm system
tracking from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper
Midwest. The system will try to drag a cold front into the region
late Monday night/Tuesday, but the front will likely stall just
north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly
parallel to the flow aloft.

Ahead of the front, strong/severe thunderstorms will be likely in
the central/southern Plains on Monday. It is possible that some
severe weather could make it into western Arkansas after dark/early
Tuesday. Otherwise, warmer conditions are expected locally, with
well above average temperatures.

Severe weather chances will go up Tuesday/Wednesday as shortwaves
rotating around the system to the north interact with the stalled
front. Afternoon CAPE values from 2000 to 3000+ J/kg seem
reasonable, and there should be enough wind energy/shear to support
at least isolated tornadoes.

As the period ends, the system to the north will wobble toward New
England. Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The
front that halted to the north will be driven through the region on
Thursday with one last round of hit/miss thunderstorms. Cooler/drier
and more seasonable air will follow the front on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally VFR conditions across the area with isolated to
scattered showers/storms causing brief disruptions through the
afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable except when
impacted by TS activity. Cigs will largely remain VFR through
tonight. More widespread RA/TS activity is expected to overspread
the state from SW to NE through the day Sunday which will lead to
deteriorating conditions with time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Batesville AR     64  77  64  81 /  30  90  70  60
Camden AR         64  76  64  83 /  30  80  30  40
Harrison AR       60  71  60  80 /  40  90  50  30
Hot Springs AR    64  75  63  81 /  50  90  40  40
Little Rock   AR  67  78  66  83 /  40  90  50  50
Monticello AR     66  80  67  85 /  30  70  40  40
Mount Ida AR      63  74  63  81 /  50 100  30  50
Mountain Home AR  60  73  62  80 /  30  90  60  50
Newport AR        64  79  64  82 /  30  90  70  50
Pine Bluff AR     65  78  65  83 /  30  90  50  40
Russellville AR   63  75  63  82 /  40  90  40  30
Searcy AR         63  77  64  82 /  30  90  70  50
Stuttgart AR      65  78  66  82 /  30  90  60  50
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...67