351
FXUS64 KLZK 051939
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and storms will linger across the area through the evening
hours before activity starts to exit in the wake of the H500 wave
lifting to the northeast. Some FG development is possible around
daybreak.

Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with
highs climbing above 80 F in many locations. Little to no precip
is expected earlier in the day and if the sun makes an appearance,
it will feel quite uncomfortable outside given recent rain and Td
values around 70 F. A weak disturbance in the SW flow aloft will
help provide increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon/evening hours.

More widespread severe activity is expected to be focused across
portions of OK/KS from Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
This activity will likely persist in intensity eastward through
the overnight hours and could provide some severe potential early
Tuesday morning across W/NW parts of the state. Behind the storms,
the front will sink south toward Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms could develop throughout the day Tuesday ahead of
the front as well as along any lingering boundaries in place over
the area. POPs on Tuesday are highest during the morning hours
with lower POPs in place later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to move out
of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This storm system
will drag a cold front across the state bringing the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be somewhat of a two prong
event. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Damaging winds
and hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The main
event will come Wednesday evening and night as the front moves into
the state. Instability and wind shear will be much higher on
Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of heavy rainfall, large
hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.

QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern
Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one
to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with
the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will
be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures
will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Generally MVFR and lower conditions are expected through the
period as low cigs and reduced vsby will impact terminals. RA/TS
activity will impact terminals at times as well. Winds will be
light/variable in nature with erratic gusts at times caused by
nearby storms. FG development will be possible prior to daybreak
Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  83  69  86 /  80  50  60  30
Camden AR         63  83  68  87 /  40  50  20  10
Harrison AR       60  80  64  83 /  60  20  70  10
Hot Springs AR    63  82  67  85 /  40  50  50  10
Little Rock   AR  66  84  70  87 /  50  50  50  20
Monticello AR     66  84  71  88 /  60  40  20  20
Mount Ida AR      62  81  67  85 /  40  60  50  20
Mountain Home AR  60  81  65  84 /  80  30  60  20
Newport AR        65  82  69  84 /  80  30  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     66  84  70  87 /  60  40  30  20
Russellville AR   62  83  67  86 /  50  40  60  10
Searcy AR         63  83  68  85 /  70  40  50  20
Stuttgart AR      67  83  70  85 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67