Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 141028
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Admin Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
428 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with this
forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather will prevail today. A weak cold front will move through
the area later this morning, with surface winds shifting to the north
heading into the afternoon hours.

.TODAY...

Max temperature.....29 at ignition...Max 48.
Min humidity........64 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming north around 5 mph early
                    in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
                    the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds west at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming north around 5 mph early
                    in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
                    the afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Dispersion..........14 increasing to 21 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth at ignition...max 4.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3151 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2500 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  31  34  37  40  43  46  47  47  48  47  44
RH..............64  63  58  54  52  49  47  48  49  51  51  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.    4   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   5
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.3   7   10  12  12  10  9   9   10  10  8   5
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 24.
Max humidity........Max 100 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........2 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1547 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 800 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  36  34  32  31  30  29  28  27  26  26  25
RH..............71  76  82  88  88  89  93  93  92  94  93  91
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   2   2
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.3   7   10  14  13  9   7   7   9   10  12  12
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 49.
Min humidity........Min 37 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........20 decreasing to 7 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2877 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2200 ft AGL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............24  24  26  31  36  40  44  47  48  49  48  46
RH..............95  100 97  83  64  54  45  40  38  37  38  42
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  10  8   6   3   3   3   3   3   2
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...C Rickard
Requested by...Brian Sullivan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1918777.0/LZK
.DELDT 11/14/19
.EMAIL brian.k.sullivan@usda.gov


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