Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 191238
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for PCS Buffalo RX...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
738 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire weather forecaster if
you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers in southern Arkansas will continue to weaken as they push
north with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms beginning to
pop up later this afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms that
develop will weaken after sunset with continued unsettled weather
continuing through the rest of the week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Max temperature.....81 at ignition...Max 86.
Min humidity........70 percent at ignition...Min 58 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds around 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........39.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5273 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4300 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............81  82  84  84  85  86  84
RH..............70  66  64  60  59  58  60
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.8   8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  14  14  14  14  14  15
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  30  30  30  30  30

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 71.
Max humidity........Max 96 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming
                    light.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Dispersion..........26 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH
Temp............83  82  80  78  77  76  75  74  73  73  72  71
RH..............62  64  68  73  77  77  79  81  83  85  87  92
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.7       6   6   5   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  12  10  10  12  12  12  10  9   8
Chc of pcpn (%).30  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 84.
Min humidity........Min 65 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Dispersion..........17 increasing to 50.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5331 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4300 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....    LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............71  71  73  75  77  79  80  82  83  83  84  84
RH..............93  96  91  85  79  74  71  70  68  66  65  65
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.            5   6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   10  14  16  18  20  20  17  16  15
Chc of pcpn (%).10  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60

$$
Forecaster...S Clarke
Requested by...R.L. SELF
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1811656.0/LZK
.DELDT 06/19/18
.EMAIL rlself@fs.fed.us



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