437
FXUS64 KMAF 151126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are
  expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms
  may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging
  winds and large hail this afternoon and evening.

- A front tonight/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures
  to the region through the weekend.

- Tonight/Friday morning`s front also brings breezy northeasterly
  winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

An active weather pattern continues today and an upper level trough
translates over the Rockies into the Central Plains. A few showers
and storms are ongoing across portions of the eastern Permian Basin,
the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Additional showers/storms
are expected to develop through day today, as moisture accompanied
by rounds of disturbances continue to move over our region within
southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will be possible over much of the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos,
and the Big Bend throughout the day. The best chances for rainfall
will be over our easternmost counties. The primary hazard with this
next round of activity looks to be heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding, especially in areas where soils are already saturated.
Aside from rainfall, this storm system sends a cold front across the
Plains. The front is progged to start entering our region this
afternoon. The combination of rainy conditions, cloudy skies, and
the cold front will result in highs in the 70s for most this
afternoon, with 80s near and along the river valleys.

Later this afternoon and into the evening, winds start to pick up
behind the cold front as it surges southward. Breezy northeast winds
are expected across much of the region. Strong gap winds are
expected within the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and through
most of the day Friday. As such, a High Wind Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupes from this evening through early Saturday
afternoon, for gusts up to 70mph. Aside from elevated winds, cooler
and drier conditions filter in behind the cold front. Rain chances
taper off from north to south through the evening and overnight
hours. A few showers and storms may still linger around the Big Bend
region Friday morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Given
the best moisture will hover near the Big Bend this evening and
tonight, the threat of flash flooding will remain for this part of
our region. Behind the cold front, temperatures early Friday morning
will fall to the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows are expected within
the Davis Mountains, where temperatures look to slip into the mid to
upper 30s. Breezy conditions persist through late Friday afternoon,
with highs topping out in the 50s to 60s (40s in the higher
terrain).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Heading into Friday night and Saturday morning, upper level ridging
takes hold across the Southern Plains. Winds begin to decrease and
skies begin to partially clear. Lows settle into the 30s and 40s
areawide. A few of the coldest spots in the mountains may reach near
freezing, briefly Saturday morning before warming back up into the
50s and 60s. Sunday morning will be about as chilly Saturday morning
and that will begin a gradual warmup into the early part of next
week. Highs move into the 70s with morning lows in the 50s for
Monday and Tuesday. Low (10-20%) rain chances move into the area
from the west during that time, but beyond Friday, much of the long
term forecast is mainly dry.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR CIGs have moved into the region, but will intermittently
impact TAF sites. Front has moved through CNM/HOB/INK and will be
through the other terminals over the next few to several hours.
Another batch of TS develops late this morning and into the early
afternoon and will push southward with the cold front. Further
amendments will be necessary based on daytime radar trends. Winds
behind the front increase with gusts around 30kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  52  60  39 /  90  40   0   0
Carlsbad                 81  54  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   81  52  59  43 /  90 100  50   0
Fort Stockton            78  49  58  39 /  60  90  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  47  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    76  48  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    74  41  51  34 /  30  80  40   0
Midland Intl Airport     76  52  59  40 /  60  30   0   0
Odessa                   75  52  59  40 /  50  30   0   0
Wink                     79  54  62  40 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 PM
     CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93