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000
FXUS64 KMAF 141648
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The region is firmly beneath southwesterly flow aloft this
morning, ahead of a departing mid-level ridge to the east and a
deepening trough churning over the northwestern California Coast.
Locally, despite the ridge moving to the east, temperatures will
warm at least a couple degrees above yesterday areawide in thanks
to a 850mb thermal ridge over the region as well as west-
southwesterly downslope flow that develops by this afternoon due
to lee troughing to the north. Highs are progged to top out in the
upper 80s west and lower to middle 90s east, with lower 100s
through the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. Mother Nature comes
calling today, with what almost certainly looks to be our first
90 degree day of 2024, with a forecast high of 92 degrees in
Midland. These unseasonably warm temperatures as well as the
persistently dry conditions and breezy downslope winds will
produce another round of elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon for western portions of the area. More on this (as well
as Monday`s critical fire weather conditions) can be found in the
Fire Weather Discussion below.

After the relatively quiescent day today, southerly to
southeasterly return flow will continue in earnest tonight
across the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau. This
will bring abundant Gulf moisture into the region, with dewpoints
in the lower 60s across far eastern zones and in the 50s as far
west as the TX/NM state line by daybreak Monday. The influx of
moisture will also keep temperatures well above normal tonight,
with lows only expected to drop into the 60s for most locations.

Monday morning, the aforementioned trough to the west will already
be crossing the Great Basin toward the Four Corners Region, then
continuing its eastward trek across the Rockies through the
evening. The core of this low will pass to the north of the
region, and thus, continuing the trend this spring, we`ll see
little beneficial rainfall, and lots of wind (and dust). As the
trough`s attendant jet noses into the region, winds ramp up across
the Guadalupe Mountains late morning into early afternoon, and
despite the jet`s core (~110- 120kt at 300 hPa) remaining just to
the north of the region over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas
Panhandle, high winds are still expected to develop across the
mountains of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas. The
strongest winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where
gusts to 75 mph will be possible, and to a lesser degree, the
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, where gusts to 65 mph are
possible. The High Wind Watch remains in effect, and now includes
the Davis Mountains beginning Monday afternoon, with likely
Advisory conditions across the adjacent plains, possibly expanding
across the Trans Pecos into the western Permian Basin, with wind
headlines expected with the next forecast package. These strong
westerly to southwesterly winds will maintain well above normal
temperatures on Monday, with highs similar to those expected
today, in the middle to upper 80s west and lower to middle 90s
east, and 100s along the Rio Grande. As to be expected, critical
fire weather conditions will result across Southeast New Mexico
and a large swath of West Texas during the afternoon, and
continuing into the evening.

In addition to the earth (dust), wind, and fire, we`ll also have a
severe weather threat with which to contend on Monday. As the
westerly to southwesterly winds ramp up across the west, the
dryline will sharpen and rapidly push eastward through the
afternoon, resulting in possible storm development during the late
afternoon across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains. CAMs disagree somewhat in the timing and location
of convective initiation, though several models indicate at least
some development in the 22Z-23Z time frame (5PM-6PM CDT) in these
areas, with any storms that develop progged to quickly move east-
northeastward, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
concern. Heading into the evening, the dryline will retreat and
collide with the trough`s advancing Pacific front, potentially
resulting in a second round of storms through the evening,
especially across the Permian Basin. More on this can be found
below.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The severe weather threat will be ongoing through Monday night
with storms confined to areas east of the dryline, which looks
to set up from Gail to Big Spring and down to McCamey. While it`s
possible this line may push further west Monday afternoon, the
main severe threat will remain across the far east through Monday
evening. Model soundings continue to support mainly a wind and
hail threat with steep lapse rates and limited moisture on Monday,
and CAPE values have been sitting steady at ~2000 J/kg in recent
runs. As winds across the west begin to die down after sunset,
storms may continue for the eastern counties through midnight
before moving east and out of the CWA. The upper level low
responsible for the active weather on Monday will move up into the
Central Plains early Tuesday morning, and southwest flow aloft
will develop over the area. With elevated winds continuing Monday
night, there won`t be much in terms of a rebound in moisture and
overnight humidity may only reach around 20% by sunrise on
Tuesday, indicating another day for fire weather concerns.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal by Wednesday, helping maintain hot
and dry conditions with highs mainly in the 80s Wednesday and
Thursday, although winds will be substantially lighter both days.
The next system, a broad upper level trough stretching across
Canada, looks to push a strong cold front down into the area
sometime Friday, which could bring about below-normal temperatures
and increasing rain chances for the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. SW-W surface winds will
decouple and back after sunset as a LLJ gets going, then veer back
to SW Monday, increase, and become gusty as leeside troughing
strengthens. High clouds should increase overnight, then decrease
a little after sunup Monday. BLDU will be possible near the end of
the forecast, but is not worth a mention attm as it should be more
prevalent Monday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Ongoing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today as
above normal temperatures return and critical humidity meets
elevated 20ft winds. The main concern remains the ERCs and fuel
moisture, with ERCs in the 75th+ percentile, and fuels dry to
critically dry for much of the region. A Fire Danger Statement has
been issued for this afternoon for Southeast New Mexico and the
Guadalupe Mountains where the strongest 20ft winds will be today,
collocated with humidity as low as 5%. Overnight recovery will be
poor across the west and good to very good across the east before
minimum humidity once again falls to single digits on Monday. Very
strong 20ft winds develop on Monday ahead of an approaching upper
low, and humidity falls to around 4-5% Monday afternoon across
the west. A sharpening dryline across the east looks to aid storm
development Monday afternoon and evening which may cause gusty and
erratic winds. For the west, strong winds and very low humidity
along with critically dry fuels will create extreme fire weather
conditions and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Poor overnight
recovery is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning for most of
the region, with some spots not seeing humidity get above 20%.

Even as 20ft winds decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with the
departure of the low, critically low humidity will continue both
afternoons and the aforementioned ERCs and low fuel moisture
express the need for additional fire products these days. There
may finally be a break nearing the end of the week as a cold front
looks to push through, bringing a return of moisture and cooler
temperatures Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  93  54  87 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                 60  87  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  95  59  91 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            65  97  57  87 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  78  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  87  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  88  44  78 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  92  55  85 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   65  92  56  85 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     63  93  52  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...44