Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251702
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Northerly winds have decreased across Southeast New Mexico, and are
diminishing through Guadalupe Pass.  Since further reduction in wind
speeds are anticipated, will go ahead and cancel the rest of the
High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass, and the Wind Advisory across
Southeast New Mexico.  Clouds will dissipate from north to south
this afternoon, with current showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern CWA moving out of the area.  The late April sun should be
able to warm readings into the 60s over a good deal of the forecast
area, so have raised temperatures a few degrees in many locations.
Also trimmed PoPs for this afternoon, but did retain a slight chance
over the eastern zones for precipitation around 25/18Z.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities will continue through mid to late
afternoon then VFR conditions are expected. Gusty northerly winds
will weaken by mid to late afternoon then will come out of the south
to southwest overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

NW flow aloft persists and in the wake of a strong cold front
this morning much cooler wx is expected. MSLP gradients are tight
and windy-very windy conditions will not abate until mid/late
morning. Wind advisory conditions may briefly occur across the PB,
but with such short duration we will not expand NPW. Post-frontal
isentropic lift 300-305K layer will transition to descent around
18Z with low clouds slowly clearly nw-se after 18Z. TSRA have been
on the decrease across the far e CWFA and mostly light precip in
assocn with isentropic lift is possible til around 18Z, some TSRA
is still possible across the s between 12Z- 18Z. Depending on the
timing of when the clouds lift some areas of the PB will not get
out of the 50s today! NAM12 forecast sounding is about 5 degrees
cooler than MOS, making Thur AM another cool one, U30s- M40s. Yet
another shrtwv trof in nw flow aloft Thur PM will drive a cold
front (dry) into the PB/SE NM late Thur afternoon. After a warm-up
on Thur high temps will fall back in M70s (below normal) Fri. Sat
mid-level flow pattern begins to transition back to sw and by Sun
PM a dryline will develop and storms will possibly initiate
along/near dryline SE NM/W-NW PB. More of the same Mon- Tue, but
with stronger sw flow aloft the dryline will be farther e each day
and by Tue any storms would be most favored across the far e. On
Wed there are indications of a deep low to the w, but differences
in how far s it will be.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  42  82  50 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  43  83  50 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  46  83  57 /  50   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  61  45  84  52 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  47  77  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          63  41  79  45 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  35  83  48 /  20   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  81  50 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  42  81  50 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           63  43  85  51 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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