Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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668
FXUS64 KMAF 200716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

There will be a better chance of rain the next few days than in
a while.  Also, temperatures will not be as hot, generally below
normal through Wednesday.  A cold front is making gradual
progress south through the Texas Panhandle early this morning,
with widespread convection ahead, along, and behind it.  Outflow
will aid the boundary southward with it reaching Interstate 20
around noon, then pushing into the higher terrain this
afternoon/evening.  It looks like most of the thunderstorms will
move over the northern Permian Basin this morning and early
afternoon, with additional development over the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau to the Big Bend late this afternoon/early
evening.  It may be windy with the storms this morning, but some
of the storms later today could be severe as instability will be
on the order of 1500-2500 J/Kg, mid level lapse rates around 7
C/Km, and 0 to 6km Bulk Shear around 30kt.  The best chance of
rain for a good deal of the forecast area appears to be tonight as
a shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the region above a
low level easterly upslope regime.  A Mesoscale Convective System
could form over the higher terrain, then spread east/northeast
overnight.  A few storms could produce strong winds, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall.

A cutoff low will take shape over the southwest ConUS, and keep the
region beneath southwesterly flow aloft.  Thunderstorm chances will
persist as a result, especially since low level east/southeasterly
flow continues to feed low level moisture into the region.  Although
high temperatures will be near to below normal through Wednesday,
some severe storms could form each day.  Rain chance will begin to
diminish Thursday through Saturday as temperatures warm above
normal, but we could still see some severe storms due to increase
instability.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  65  84  66 /  60  50  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  62  85  62 /  40  50  50  50
Dryden                         87  67  86  68 /  50  50  40  30
Fort Stockton                  84  65  86  66 /  50  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 76  62  79  60 /  40  50  40  50
Hobbs                          79  61  80  61 /  50  60  50  50
Marfa                          84  55  84  57 /  50  50  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           82  65  85  66 /  60  50  50  30
Odessa                         82  66  84  67 /  50  50  50  40
Wink                           85  65  86  67 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67



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