Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Started off the day fairly calm with high pressure aloft but an
approaching upper through from the west is bringing windy
conditions to the region. This trough will cross the Rockies onto
the plains tonight with another ridge building in behind it. The
next upper low will move ashore the West Coast early Thursday and
quickly roll east reaching the 4 Corners region early Friday. This
low will cross the Rockies early Saturday and onto the plains
later in the day... as it moves east high pressure will return.

Windy conditions have begun across the west with sustained wind of
45 kts at GDP and 34 kts at ATS.  A High Wind Warning remains in
effect for the Guadalupe Mountains and nearby plains with a wind
advisory for the remainder of SE NM along with Reeves and the Davis
Mountains.  Blowing dust will be possible across much of the area.
Also have a very dry airmass in place with dewpts from the 20s in
the east to below zero in the west has created extremely critical
fire weather conditions.

Temperatures are unseasonably warm across the area with readings into
the 90s.  However a cold front will move through tonight returning
regional temperatures to near normal. Lows tonight will be in the
40s and 50s with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and 80s.

Thunderstorm chances increase late this week ahead of the upper low.
Model qpf is developing rain out west Thursday and spreads it east
through Friday night.  A dryline is expected to develop Friday which
will act to focus convection. There is the potential for strong to
severe storms with this system... will address these concerns in the
HWO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather condition underway
across portions of the region this afternoon with dry, warm and
windy conditions in place. Areas of high clouds seem to be capping
fire weather conditions across some areas but other areas are
experiencing full sun with RFTI values of 7-9 (extreme to
historical). Regardless of the clouds, minimum RHs are around 3-5%
and ERCs across the region are in the 90-97th percentile so the
potential for wildfires remains very high. A Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect through this evening. A cold front late tonight
will bring a northerly wind shift that could affect any active
fires. Dry air will filter in behind the front and overnight
recovery will be poor. Fire weather conditions improve Wednesday
with weaker wind speeds expected. An increase in moisture and rain
chances Thursday/Friday may bring some much need relief to some
areas although dry lightning could be a concern both these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       48  77  48  76 /   0   0   0  30
Dryden                         61  86  59  78 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  55  78  52  77 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 48  69  47  70 /   0   0   0  40
Hobbs                          45  73  45  72 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          43  76  43  73 /   0   0  10  40
Midland Intl Airport           52  77  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         52  77  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           49  78  49  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

&&

$$

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