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000
FXUS64 KMAF 120751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The warming trend that started yesterday continues in earnest today,
and will carry us through the upcoming weekend. Midlevel ridging
located just east of the Four Corners early this morning will
translate eastward today, moving over the region through this
afternoon. Increasing thicknesses will yield a quick rebound to
above normal temperatures today, in spite of increasing high clouds
that will expand across the region from southwest to northeast
beneath and on the back side of the ridge. Highs this afternoon top
out in the 80s across the plains, upper 70s in the mountains, and
lower to middle 90s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, around 5
to 8 degrees above normal for most. Southerly to southeasterly winds
will ramp up through the morning, becoming gusty through the
afternoon, especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.
Fortunately, these winds look to remain below Advisory criteria, but
unfortunately, will produce elevated fire weather conditions for
portions of the area. More on this can be found in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

After sunset, winds aren`t expected to die down as the nocturnal low-
level jet ramps up once more, maintaining strong southerly to
southeasterly return flow. This return flow will keep moisture
elevated, especially along and east of the Pecos, yielding mild
overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees for most locations. A
developing lee surface trough to the north of the area Saturday will
result in a shift to southwesterly surface flow across western
areas, with continued southerly flow to the east. Downslope warming
beneath southwesterly flow aloft will see temperatures continue to
climb, with highs warming at least a few degrees across the board.
Highs in the middle to upper 80s will be common, with lower 90s
across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, the Pecos Valley, and
Presidio Valley, and the return of triple digit heat in the Big
Bend. The short term forecast remains bone-dry.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Upper level ridging will hold in place through the weekend and into
Monday morning, maintaining temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal in the 80s and low 90s. Our lack of meaningful rainfall in
the previous months will continue to cause headaches as each
afternoon will see elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
given critically low relative humidity and above-normal temperatures
aiding the drying of vegetation across the region.

A change in the pattern arrives Monday as a large upper low migrates
eastward across the Desert Southwest, arriving on the doorstep of
our CWA Monday afternoon. Ahead of this system, an associated jet
max will set up over New Mexico/West Texas and efficient mixing
during the early afternoon indicates high winds in the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains with possible Wind Advisory criteria most other
locations. These strong southwesterly winds will push highs into the
90s for much of the region Monday afternoon while the dryline
sharpens across the east, and thunderstorms look to develop Monday
afternoon through Monday night for the areas east of the dryline.
Model soundings are continuing to trend towards an environment ideal
for severe storms to develop, especially for our far eastern
counties, Monday evening into the overnight hours. This will be
something to keep a close eye on. Besides the severe weather threat,
the aforementioned strong winds will meet with humidity as low as 4
percent and clearing skies as the low moves across. While the
eastern CWA will be dealing with storms on Monday, the western
counties will likely need a Red Flag Warning with critical fire
weather.

After an action-packed Monday, things taper off with slightly cooler
weather in the wake of the trough, which will move up into the
Central Plains on Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft will maintain benign
weather through mid week, before models indicate a strong cold front
may push through the area late in the week. This front may bring us
precipitation chances as we head into the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Southeasterly
winds will be elevated and intermittently gusty tonight,
particularly at MAF, INK, and FST due to a low-level jet. Winds
then increase, becoming gusty areawide after 12Z, with gusts to
around 25-35kt expected to develop and continue through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Ongoing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today
through Sunday as above normal temperatures return and critical
humidity each afternoon meets elevated 20ft winds across the region.
The main concern remains the ERCs and fuel moisture, with ERCs in
the 90th+ percentile across the south, and fuels critically dry in
the same area. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this
afternoon for most areas along and south of the Trans Pecos where
the ERCs are in the highest percentile and fuels are the driest.
Overnight recovery will be fair to good before minimum humidity once
again falls to single digits Saturday afternoon. This will be the
set up both Saturday and Sunday before very strong 20ft winds
develop on Monday ahead of an approaching upper low, and humidity
falls to around 4-5% Monday afternoon across the west. While a
sharpening dryline across the east looks to aid storm development
Monday afternoon and evening, strong winds and critical humidity
across the west will create critical fire weather conditions and a
Red Flag Warning may be needed.

Even as 20ft winds decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with the departure
of the low, critically low humidity will continue both afternoons
and the aforementioned ERCs and low fuel moisture express the need
for additional Red Flag Warnings these days. There may finally be a
break nearing the end of the week as a cold front looks to push
through, likely bringing a return of moisture and cooler
temperatures by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  57  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   85  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  57  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           78  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    80  45  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     85  57  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   84  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     88  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84