Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211042
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mix of low clouds have developed across the area this morning.
MVFR ceilings are close to the higher terrain so far, but think
ceiling heights could dip to MVFR over most of western terminals
through 21/15Z.  An area of IFR ceilings are moving north through
the Permian Basin, and could affect KMAF and KFST.  Expect clouds to
dissipate by 21/17Z with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon/
evening.  Expect TSRA to develop west this afternoon and spread
eastward overnight.  Will include TSRA at most terminals.  Strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and temporary low ceilings will accompany the
storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

An upper trough is centered over California with westerly flow
over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are
expected to warm up a little from yesterday with highs mostly in
the mid 80s across the Permian Basin. Southeast surface winds will
be present bringing in good low-level moisture. A few strong to
severe storms are possible this afternoon across mostly the higher
terrain with good moisture, lift, and instability present. The
main thunderstorm activity is expected tonight as models show
thunderstorms developing across the far western CWA late this
evening and spreading east to the western and central Permian
Basin by Tuesday morning. These storms have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hail with the
low-level jet aiding in providing moisture and lift to fuel the
storms through the overnight hours.

A few strong to severe storms are possible again on Tuesday with
the upper trough moving closer to the region. Temperatures Tuesday
will be similar to today. The upper trough begins to lift
northward on Wednesday, but good lift, moisture, and instability
will still be present allowing for some strong to severe storms to
develop across mostly the higher terrain and southeast New Mexico.
Even though upper ridging develops over the region beginning on
Thursday, thunderstorms will continue to be possible across
portions of the area with good moisture present. Temperatures are
expected to increase as a result of this upper ridge. Temperatures
may reach the triple digits across parts of the Permian Basin
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  67  85  67 /  20  40  40  20
Carlsbad                       86  62  85  64 /  40  80  30  30
Dryden                         86  71  89  69 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  86  66  85  66 /  30  60  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  58  80  60 /  40  80  20  30
Hobbs                          81  61  80  61 /  30  70  50  30
Marfa                          82  59  81  55 /  40  70  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           85  67  85  67 /  20  60  40  20
Odessa                         86  67  85  67 /  20  60  50  20
Wink                           88  67  88  67 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80



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