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101
FXUS64 KMAF 211109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at
the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. The exception appears to be KHOB where tempo MVFR ceilings
are expected through shortly after sunrise. Winds will become
northwest by mid morning at 15 to 25 mph and gusty today with
winds becoming northeast tonight at 5 to 15 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Southern CO this morning will drift across OK today
and into AR Sunday.  The next upper trough comes ashore the NW Coast
Sunday... it slowly moves east for awhile before diving down across
the Central Plains midweek.  After this trough passes east another
one swings down out of Canada and across the plains.  Both of these
troughs should keep the coming week on the cooler side and keep
chance of storms in the forecast.

A cold front in the Panhandle this morning will move down into the
area later today and pass through the rest of the region overnight.
Temperatures today will be in the 70s north to 80s along and south
of the Pecos with 90s along the Rio Grande.  Sunday will be a little
cooler with highs generally in the 70s.  On Monday 80s return and
spread northward Tuesday with some 90s.  Another cold front comes
down late Tuesday with cooler readings expected Wednesday with
readings near normal for the rest of the week.

As of 08z still have good low level moisture over the east with a
sharp dryline near a Hobbs to Fort Stockton line.  East of the
dryline have dewpts in the 50s while dewpts mainly in the single
digits over the west.  Had some storms develop yesterday across SE
NM and the Trans Pecos down into the Big Bend region.  Think most of
the convection is over for this event but went ahead and threw in
mention of isolated storms this morning across the NE Permian Basin.
Will not be as windy today.  Some chance of rain in the extended
with the next troughs but think models overdoing it.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will go ahead and issue a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon for
the Big Bend including the Guadalupe Mountains in Culberson county
and the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor. Breezy and dry conditions in
these areas will result in max RFTI`s of 3 to 4 this afternoon. In
addition ERC-G fuel values are forecast to be in the 75th to 89th
percentile in these areas. When combined with RFTI values of 3-4, a
Red Flag Warning is recommended. Conditions should improve early
this evening as winds decrease due to nocturnal cooling. Recovery
tonight will be fair to poor.

Fire weather concerns should ease Sunday through Tuesday as moisture
increases with decreasing wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  43  71  49 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  47  73  50 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         89  55  78  56 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  80  47  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 72  47  70  52 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          72  41  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  41  72  42 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           78  45  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         78  45  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           80  45  76  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
     PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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